• Energy Research

Abstract This research studies the low carbon transition of the electric power sector in China using a multi-level perspective (MLP) of niches, socio-technical regime, and landscape, as well as literature on innovation systems. Three lines of thought on transition process are integrated in the paper to probe the possible transition pathways in China. A MLP analysis is presented to understand the current niches, regime, and landscape of China’s power sector. A brief analysis on the future macroscopic socio-economic transition in the process of industrialization, urbanization, and modernization of Chinese society and its implication on power landscape are depicted to prove the urgency and magnitude of transition in China and why systematic transition management is needed. Five transition pathways, namely reproduction, transformation, substitution, reconfiguration, de-alignment/re-alignment, and reconfiguration, with their possible technology options are presented. The paper goes further to propose an interactive framework for managing the transition to a low carbon energy system in China. Representative technology options are appraised by employing innovation theory to indicate the logic of policymaking within the framework. Institutional gaps in realizing the transition are also addressed. The work presented in the paper will be useful in informing policy-makers and other stakeholders and may provide references for power sector transition management in other countries.

Abstract Energy-intensive activities have been increasingly outsourced to developing countries. Many researchers investigated this trend, and in recent years, consumption-based accounting of energy use and emissions have gained attention. This study contributes to this literature by analyzing the effect of changing the accounting method for energy use on the resulting drivers identified from a decomposition analysis study. Specifically, the analysis is done on the increasing energy use in six ASEAN countries. The authors argue that since policy recommendations on energy and emissions are anchored significantly on these drivers, their sensitivity to the accounting approach used must be understood. The results show that the effect is not the same for all countries, and they can be grouped into 3 categories. The findings provide insights and raise questions regarding the sustainability of growing economies in the ASEAN region. To conclude, the results are reflected on from both a national and international perspective, and potential policy implications are discussed.

The decline of China's energy intensity slowed since 2000. During 2002–2005 it actually increased, reversing the long-term trend. Therefore, it is important to identify drivers of the fluctuation of energy intensity. We use input–output structural decomposition analysis to investigate the contributions of changes in energy mix, sectoral energy efficiency, production structure, final demand structure, and final demand category composition to China's energy intensity fluctuation during 1997–2007. We include household energy consumption in the study by closing the input–output model with respect to households. Results show that sectoral energy efficiency improvements contribute the most to the energy intensity decline during 1997–2007. The increase in China's energy intensity during 2002–2007 is instead explained by changes in final demand composition and production structure. Changes in final demand composition are mainly due to increasing share of exports, while changes in production structure mainly arise from the shift of Chinese economy to more energy-intensive industries. Changes in energy mix and final demand structure contribute little to China's energy intensity fluctuation. From the consumption perspective, growing exports of energy-intensive products and increasing infrastructure demands explain the majority of energy intensity increase during 2002–2007.

Current patterns and future possibilities of China's material metabolism are evaluated from perspectives of consumption structure change and technology development using the approach of input-output modeling to integrate ecological and economic systems. A physical input monetary output (PIMO) model is created and is applied to the Chinese economy with 43 sectors and 25 material categories. A set of scenarios, five exploring aspects of consumption structure change and three doing the same for technology development, is analyzed to quantitatively predict China's future possible material metabolism patterns in 2010. The results provide a foundation for quantitative studies of resource consumption and waste generation in China, which given its increasing pivotal role in manufacturing is also helpful for research on the material metabolism of the entire world.

Abstract Micro-grid system management considering air pollutant control and carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation is a challenging task, since many system parameters such as electric demand, resource availability, system cost as well as their interrelationships may appear uncertain. To reflect these uncertainties, effective inexact system-analysis methods are desired. In this study, a hybrid inexact stochastic-fuzzy chance-constrained programming (ITSFCCP) was developed for micro-grid system planning, and interval-parameter programming (IPP), two-stage stochastic programming (TSP) and fuzzy credibility constrained programming (FCCP) methods were integrated into a general framework to manage pollutants and CO2 emissions under uncertainties presented as interval values, fuzzy possibilistic and stochastic probabilities. Moreover, FCCP allowed satisfaction of system constraints at specified confidence level, leading to model solutions with the lowest system cost under acceptable risk magnitudes. The developed model was applied to a case of micro-grid system over a 24-h optimization horizon with a real time and dynamic air pollutant control, and total amount control for CO2 emission. Optimal generation dispatch strategies were derived under different assumptions for risk preferences and emission reduction goals. The obtained results indicated that stable intervals for the objective function and decision variables could be generated, which were useful for helping decision makers identify the desired electric power generation patterns, and CO2 emission reduction under complex uncertainties, and gain in-depth insights into the trade-offs between system economy and reliability.

Abstract It is critical to alleviate problems of energy and air pollutants emissions in the metropolis because these areas serve as economic engines and have large and dense populations. Drivers of fossil fuel use and air pollutants emissions were analyzed in metropolis of Beijing during 1997–2010. The analyses were conducted from both a bottom-up and a top-down perspective based on the sectoral inventories and structural decomposition analysis (SDA). From a bottom-up perspective, the key energy-intensive industrial sectors directly caused the variations in Beijing's air pollution by means of a series of energy and economic policies. From a top-down perspective, variations in production structures caused increases in most materials during 2000–2010, but there were decreases in PM10 and PM2.5 emissions during 2005–2010. Population growth was found to be the largest driver of energy consumption and air pollutants emissions during 1997–2010. This finding suggests that avoiding rapid population growth in Beijing could simultaneously control energy consumptions and air pollutants emissions. Mitigation policies should consider not only the key industrial sectors but also socioeconomic drivers to co-reduce energy consumption and air pollutions in China's metropolis.

Previous studies on environmental impacts embodied in trade have paid little attention to the impacts of labor input, or environmental overhead of labor input (EOLI). EOLI occurs to support lifestyles both in the purchase of goods and services and in the consumption of fuels and electricity by workers. This research investigates both supply chain manufacturing and EOLI energy use and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions embodied in the 2002 China-U.S. trade. EOLI is substantial in scale: 24% of manufacturing energy in the U.S. and 6% for China. The higher share of EOLI in the U.S. is the result of higher energy use to support worker lifestyles. Analysis shows China's EOLI is dominated by the manufacturing of products consumed by workers, while EOLI on the U.S. side is primarily from workers' direct consumption. The total manufacturing and EOLI energy and CO(2) embodied in the eastbound trade from China to the U.S. are 6.5 exajoules (EJ) of energy (6% EOLI) and 440 million tons (Mt) of CO(2) (8% EOLI). The total manufacturing and EOLI energy and CO(2) embodied in the westbound trade from the U.S. to China are 424 petajoules (PJ) of energy (19% EOLI) and 25.3 Mt of CO(2) (21% EOLI).

Urban systems draw on food, energy, and water outside of their physical boundaries, and create environmental impacts which extend beyond city borders. All three of these resources face growing demand, supply constraints, and are of substantial importance to a sustainable world. Our world is increasingly urbanized, with cities having large and concentrated environmental impacts, but also the opportunity to implement unique sustainability solutions at scale. The interactions between food, energy, and water are best captured through a nexus view, identifying the full interactions between these resources. Topics of growing significance to urban systems are identified with their nexus connections. These connections facilitate complex sustainability challenges, but also can also be harnessed to promote coordinated solutions.

Abstract China has proposed its 2020 clean energy target together with the climate change target of reducing CO2 intensity of the economy by 40–45% below the 2005 level. This article investigates the feasibility of these targets by testing their consistency under possible economic development scenarios. We analyse these targets from two perspectives: consistency with the overall economic growth and consistency with the international society's expectation on China's greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement responsibilities. The main findings are: under the recently announced 2020 target of gross domestic product (GDP) that is double the 2010 level, the adoption of a 15% clean energy target could result in excessive primary energy demand; and then with 40–45% GDP CO2 intensity reduction, CO2 emissions in 2020 could substantially exceed the International Energy Agency (IEA) 450 ppm scenario for China. Thus we propose a 17% clean energy target that can reconcile the domestic plan with international expectation. Our article also outlines the pathways to realise clean energy development into 2020 and proposes policy recommendations.