• Energy Research

Abstract The dragonfly Trithemis kirbyi Sélys, 1891 recently colonized Western Europe from North Africa. Since its first record in the Iberian Peninsula in 2007, the species has been spreading northward and has become naturally established in the central and eastern Iberian Peninsula, the Balearic Islands and southern France. Despite its worldwide distribution, its rapid colonization of the western Mediterranean area occurred only very recently. We found that the dispersal and recent establishment of T. kirbyi in southwestern Europe strongly depends on increasing temperatures, particularly summer temperature peaks, which has allowed this species to disperse farther and more effectively than during years with average summer temperatures. The most important variable in the suitability models is the minimum temperature of the coldest month, which, in recent decades, has become less of a limiting factor for ectotherms. According to the models, suitable areas for the species are currently found throughout the eastern Mediterranean parts of Europe, and it is likely that it can naturally colonize these areas as it did in the Iberian Peninsula. Trithemis kirbyi is a model of how climate change and observed rising temperatures have turned previously inhospitable regions into suitable areas for exotic species, which may successfully colonize them naturally if they can reach these promising lands on their own. However, this study serves as a warning that such species can also colonize these new regions with a little help from unsuspecting ‘friends’, which are often responsible for the increasingly common presence of invasive, noxious taxa in Europe.

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) include a subset of targets that can be advanced through standard urban management activities. In particular, routine urban vegetation management comprises a number of activities with potential impact on Goal #4 (quality education), #11 (sustainable cities and communities), #13 (protect the planet), #15 (life on land), and, perhaps less obviously, but equally important, on Goal #8 (good jobs and economic growth). This paper discusses how urban vegetation management can help achieve the SDGs at a local level. Drawing on a case study (Talavera de la Reina, Spain), it is shown that an intelligent approach to urban vegetation management can leverage resources towards the SDGs at little or no cost to municipalities. Minor modifications and conceptual changes in how standard practices are carried out can make a difference. Including this dimension can even result in a positive balance for the municipal budget. Our analyses and proposals are of broad and direct applicability for urban areas worldwide and can help city authorities and officials to align their cities with the SDGs simply by making minor adjustments to how they currently deal with urban vegetation.

Global biodiversity is negatively affected by anthropogenic climate change. As species distributions shift due to increasing temperatures and precipitation fluctuations, many species face the risk of extinction. In this study, we explore the expected trend for plant species distributions in Central America and southern Mexico under two alternative Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) portraying moderate (RCP4.5) and severe (RCP8.5) increases in greenhouse gas emissions, combined with two species dispersal assumptions (limited and unlimited), for the 2061–2080 climate forecast. Using an ensemble approach employing three techniques to generate species distribution models, we classified 1924 plant species from the region’s (sub)tropical forests according to IUCN Red List categories. To infer the spatial and taxonomic distribution of species’ vulnerability under each scenario, we calculated the proportion of species in a threat category (Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered) at a pixel resolution of 30 arc seconds and by family. Our results show a high proportion (58–67%) of threatened species among the four experimental scenarios, with the highest proportion under RCP8.5 and limited dispersal. Threatened species were concentrated in montane areas and avoided lowland areas where conditions are likely to be increasingly inhospitable. Annual precipitation and diurnal temperature range were the main drivers of species’ relative vulnerability. Our approach identifies strategic montane areas and taxa of conservation concern that merit urgent inclusion in management plans to improve climatic resilience in the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot. Such information is necessary to develop policies that prioritize vulnerable elements and mitigate threats to biodiversity under climate change.

Climate change impacts particularly affect vulnerable populations such as children. Therefore, it is necessary to address the adaptation of educational buildings to prevent their negative impact on school performance and to increase their resilience. This study is part of an ongoing project, LIFE myBUILDINGisGREEN (LIFE17 CCA/ES/000088), which aims to optimise learning conditions in schools in Southern Europe affected by heat waves during warmer months. This first part of this project focuses on predicting the impact of Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) implementation. The main concern of this stage is to analyse the benefits on both interior comfort and energy efficiency. This paper presents the results of the influence on space cooling demand via dynamic building simulations after successively applying the different NBS. Further improvements in indoor environmental conditions such as CO2 concentration reductions will be evaluated later. For this purpose, a demonstration building, located in southern Spain, characterized in terms of thermophysical parameters of the envelope and air infiltrations was selected. The energy model was calibrated with actual monitoring data. Different scenarios have been analysed through an energy prediction software, leading to a wide range of outcomes in terms of improvements in both energy demand - assuming a cooling system - and temperature reduction.

AbstractOceanic islands are of fundamental importance for the conservation of biodiversity because they exhibit high endemism rates coupled with fast extinction rates. Nowhere in Europe is this pattern more conspicuous than in the Macaronesian biogeographic region. A large network of protected areas within the region has been developed, but the question of whether these areas will still be climatically suitable for the globally threatened endemic element in the coming decades remains open. Here, we make predictions on the fate of the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora in the context of ongoing climate change. The potential distribution of 35 Macaronesian endemic bryophyte species was assessed under present and future climate conditions using an ensemble modelling approach. Projections of the models under different climate change scenarios predicted an average decrease of suitable areas of 62–87% per species and a significant elevational increase by 2070, so that even the commonest species were predicted to fit either the Vulnerable or Endangered IUCN categories. Complete extinctions were foreseen for six of the studied Macaronesian endemic species. Given the uncertainty regarding the capacity of endemic species to track areas of suitable climate within and outside the islands, active management associated to an effective monitoring program is suggested.

AbstractClimate change is a key stressor for species. Two major consequences of climate‐induced range shifts are the formation of new areas of geographic overlap (i.e. sympatry) and an increased probability of hybridisation in thede novocreated contact zones.One method to effectively quantify the potential of hybridisation is to integrate ecological niche modelling and the propensity to hybridisation based on genetic divergence. In this paper, we have applied this methodology to predict hybridisation outcomes following different scenarios of climate change in 30 species ofArgiadamselflies.We (i) investigated how climate change may affect species’ distributions; (ii) quantified if changed distributions generate new areas of sympatry between species; (iii) calculated the propensity to hybridise based on genetic divergence between species; and (iv) integrated these data to predict the future potential of species to hybridise.We found that the distribution of 29 of the 30 species was affected by a change in climate which led to a general increase in sympatric overlap among species. The degree of genetic divergence among the 108 species’ combinations ranged from 0.06% to 0.36%. Based on the sympatric overlap and genetic divergence, it can be predicted that 97 of the species pairs are likely to hybridise in the future.Our results are useful to forecast how highly diverse and closely related groups, such asArgiadamselflies, may respond to a change in climate and how this can impact the potential of species mixing under a scenario of increased global warming.

Climate change impacts particularly affect vulnerable populations such as children. Therefore, addressing the adaptation of educational buildings is crucial in avoiding these negative effects on school performance. In this paper, three educational buildings, located in Badajoz (Spain), Evora (Portugal) and Porto (Portugal), serve as pilot samples to study the suitability of nature-based solutions (NBS), chosen for each one of three climatic zones. The NBS selected include green roofs, vertical structures with vegetation to shade holes, outdoor trees and free-cooling ventilation. The scenarios of the different NBS implemented in the three models were simulated with the software EnergyPlus, which allows optimising the appropriate decision before renovation operations begin. The results obtained from the simulations suggest energy performance improvements after applying the most adequate NBS selection to each one of the three buildings tested. Particularly, a reduction in radiation on both roofs and facades is required in the case of Evora and Badajoz, where both climate zones have similar features, that is, warm and dry. While in Porto, milder and more humid than the former ones, it is very effective to operate mainly on the roof, complemented by small ventilation operations. The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of this work by the LIFE+ Programme under the responsibility of the Directorate General for the Environment of the European Commission through the agreement LIFE17 CCA/ES/00088, LIFE myBUILDINGisGREEN.