• Energy Research

This report provides a systematic review of the most likely risks and shocks in Europe. The analysis focuses on medium-term risks expected in the next 5-10 years, harmonizing findings from various reports. We use thematic and content analysis to identify recurring patterns, grouping risks into 15 unified concepts. Risks are categorized based on the frequency of mention, with more frequently cited risks considered more significant. The methodology ensures comparability despite differing frameworks and terminologies in the reports. Climate change, geopolitics, and biodiversity consistently rank as top concerns across global and European contexts. It is also noteworthy that many risks are interconnected. To better understand the intertwined risks, we focus on climate change, which stands out as a critical concern. Besides highlighting the more direct negative consequences, we showcase the complex and widespread effects across multiple areas. 

This study develops a multidimensional framework to assess cumulative exposure to climaterelated risks across Europe, integrating health, energy, transport, and socioeconomic conditions. By mapping risk distribution across regions and measuring dependence, we capture the interconnectedness of exposures and identify key socioeconomic drivers. Our findings reveal a substantial variation in risk distribution, with no clear geographical patterns. Unsurprisingly, household income emerges as the strongest determinant of exposure. We extend this analysis by projecting cumulative exposure to 2050, applying climate scenarios. The results suggest gradual rather than sharp change in exposure over time, with some areas exhibiting sharp rises; however, average risks are expected to rise across the entire continent.