• Energy Research

Large emission reductions in buildings and transport are possible by integrating demand-side strategies to electrify energy use, improve technological efficiency, and reduce or shift patterns of activity. With enabling policies and infrastructures, final energy users can make significant contributions to climate goals, particularly through widespread deployment of heat pumps and electric vehicles.

Islands face unique challenges on their journey towards achieving carbon neutrality by the mid-century, due to the lack of energy interconnections, limited domestic energy resources, extensive fossil fuel dependence, and high load variance requiring new technologies to balance demand and supply. At the same time, these challenges can be turned into a great opportunity for economic growth and the creation of jobs with non-interconnected islands having the potential to become transition frontrunners by adopting sustainable technologies and implementing innovative solutions. This paper uses an advanced energy–economy system modeling tool (IntE3-ISL) accompanied by plausible decarbonization scenarios to assess the medium- and long-term impacts of energy transition on the energy system, emissions, economy, and society of the island of Mayotte. The model-based analysis adequately captures the specificities of Mayotte and examines the complexity, challenges, and opportunities to decarbonize the island’s non-interconnected energy system. The energy transition necessitates the adoption of ambitious climate policy measures and the extensive deployment of low- and zero-carbon technologies both in the demand and supply sides of the energy system, accounting for the unique characteristics of each individual sector, while sectoral integration is also important. To reduce emissions from hard-to-abate sectors, such as transportation and industry, the measures and technologies can include the installation and use of highly efficient equipment, the electrification of end uses (such as the widespread adoption of electric vehicles), the large roll-out of renewable energy sources, as well as the production and use of green hydrogen and synthetic fuels.

Abstract Decarbonization of energy-using sectors is essential for tackling climate change. We use an ensemble of global integrated assessment models to assess CO2 emissions reduction potentials in buildings and transport, accounting for system interactions. We focus on three intervention strategies with distinct emphases: reducing or changing activity, improving technological efficiency and electrifying energy end use. We find that these strategies can reduce emissions by 51–85% in buildings and 37–91% in transport by 2050 relative to a current policies scenario (ranges indicate model variability). Electrification has the largest potential for direct emissions reductions in both sectors. Interactions between the policies and measures that comprise the three strategies have a modest overall effect on mitigation potentials. However, combining different strategies is strongly beneficial from an energy system perspective as lower electricity demand reduces the need for costly supply-side investments and infrastructure.

This study provides a quantitative analysis of future energy–climate developments at the global level using two well-established integrated assessment models (IAMs), PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN. The research aims to explore the results of these IAMs and identify avenues for improvement to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. The study focuses on the effects of varying assumptions for key model drivers, including carbon prices, technology costs, and global energy prices, within the context of stringent decarbonization policies. Diagnostic scenarios are utilized to assess the behavior of the models under varying exogenous assumptions for key drivers, aiming to verify the accuracy and reliability of the models and identify areas for optimization. The findings of this research demonstrate that both PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN exhibit similar responses to carbon pricing, with PROMETHEUS being more sensitive to this parameter than TIAM-ECN. The results highlight the importance of carbon pricing as an effective policy tool to drive decarbonization efforts. Additionally, the study reveals that variations in technology costs and global energy prices significantly impact the outcomes of the models. The identified sensitivities and responses of the IAMs to key model drivers offer guidance for policymakers to refine their policy decisions and develop effective strategies aligned with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. By understanding the behavior of the models under different assumptions, policymakers can make informed decisions to optimize decarbonization pathways and enhance the likelihood of meeting global climate goals.

The European Union faces the pressing challenge of decarbonising the buildings sector to meet its climate neutrality goal by 2050. Buildings are significant contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, primarily through energy consumption for heating and cooling. This study uses the advanced PRIMES-BuiMo model to develop state-of-the-art innovative pathways and strategies to decarbonise the EU buildings sector, providing insights into energy consumption patterns, renovation rates and equipment replacement dynamics in the EU and in two representative Member States, Sweden and Greece. The model-based analysis shows that the EU’s transition towards climate neutrality requires significant investment in energy efficiency of buildings combined with decarbonisation of the fuel mix, mostly through the uptake of electric heat pumps replacing the use of fossil fuels. The Use Case also demonstrates that targeted policy interventions considering the national context and specificities are required to ensure an efficient and sustainable transition to zero-emission buildings. The analysis of transformational strategies in Greece and Sweden provides an improved understanding of the role of country-specific characteristics on policy effectiveness so as to inform more targeted and contextually appropriate approaches to decarbonise the buildings sector across the EU.

The interest in sustainability and energy efficiency is constantly increasing, and the noticeable effects of climate change and rising energy prices are fueling this development. The residential sector is one of the most energy-intensive sectors and plays an important role in shaping future energy consumption. In this context, modeling has been extensively employed to identify relative key drivers, and to evaluate the impact of different strategies to reduce energy consumption and emissions. This article presents a detailed literature review relative to modeling approaches and techniques in residential energy use, including case studies to assess and predict the energy consumption patterns of the sector. The purpose of this article is not only to review the research to date in this field, but to also identify the possible challenges and opportunities. Mobility, electrical devices, cooling and heating systems, and energy storage and energy production technologies will be the subject of the presented research. Furthermore, the energy upgrades of buildings, their energy classification, as well as the energy labels of the electric appliances will be discussed. Previous research provided valuable insights into the application of modeling techniques to address the complexities of residential energy consumption. This paper offers a thorough resource for researchers, stakeholders, and other parties interested in promoting sustainable energy practices. The information gathered can contribute to the development of effective strategies for reducing energy use, facilitating energy-efficient renovations, and helping to promote a greener and more sustainable future in the residential domain.

This paper presents a new energy–economy system modelling approach, developed specifically for energy system planning in non-interconnected islands, aiming for decarbonization. Energy system planning is an essential tool to shape the energy transition to reach carbon neutrality in the medium- and long-term horizon. Islands, as small-scale energy systems, have a limited contribution to the global climate targets, but due to their geographical and natural limitations, they present the potential to become frontrunners in the clean energy transition, especially regarding the efficient use of resources. The specificities and complexities of geographical islands cannot be adequately covered by the available energy modelling tools and new advanced approaches need to be developed to provide the appropriate support in designing the future decarbonized energy systems at insular level. Our methodological approach follows the adaptation and customization of well-established energy–economy modelling tools towards the development of an integrated island-scale energy–economy system model, capturing energy demand and supply by sector, heating/cooling and mobility requirements, energy efficiency potentials and their complex interactions through energy prices, storage, flexibility services and sectoral integration. By soft-linking the energy and economy system modelling tools through the consistent exchange of model parameters and variables, we developed a fully fledged modelling framework called IntE3-ISL, designed for islands with a horizon up to 2050.