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AbstractElevated carbon-dioxide concentration [eCO2] is a key climate change factor affecting plant growth and yield. Conventionally, crop modeling work has evaluated the effect of climatic parameters on crop growth, without considering CO2. It is conjectured that a novel multimodal ensemble approach may improve the accuracy of modelled responses to eCO2. To demonstrate the applicability of a multimodel ensemble of crop models to simulation of eCO2, APSIM, CropSyst, DSSAT, EPIC and STICS were calibrated to observed data for crop phenology, biomass and yield. Significant variability in simulated biomass production was shown among the models particularly at dryland sites (44%) compared to the irrigated site (22%). Increased yield was observed for all models with the highest average yield at dryland site by EPIC (49%) and lowest under irrigated conditions (17%) by APSIM and CropSyst. For the ensemble, maximum yield was 45% for the dryland site and a minimum 22% at the irrigated site. We concluded from our study that process-based crop models have variability in the simulation of crop response to [eCO2] with greater difference under water-stressed conditions. We recommend the use of ensembles to improve accuracy in modeled responses to [eCO2].

KOF Working Papers, 327

Historical exploitation of the Mediterranean Sea and the absence of rigorous baselines makes it difficult to evaluate the current health of the marine ecosystems and the efficacy of conservation actions at the ecosystem level. Here we establish the first current baseline and gradient of ecosystem structure of nearshore rocky reefs at the Mediterranean scale. We conducted underwater surveys in 14 marine protected areas and 18 open access sites across the Mediterranean, and across a 31-fold range of fish biomass (from 3.8 to 118 g m(-2)). Our data showed remarkable variation in the structure of rocky reef ecosystems. Multivariate analysis showed three alternative community states: (1) large fish biomass and reefs dominated by non-canopy algae, (2) lower fish biomass but abundant native algal canopies and suspension feeders, and (3) low fish biomass and extensive barrens, with areas covered by turf algae. Our results suggest that the healthiest shallow rocky reef ecosystems in the Mediterranean have both large fish and algal biomass. Protection level and primary production were the only variables significantly correlated to community biomass structure. Fish biomass was significantly larger in well-enforced no-take marine reserves, but there were no significant differences between multi-use marine protected areas (which allow some fishing) and open access areas at the regional scale. The gradients reported here represent a trajectory of degradation that can be used to assess the health of any similar habitat in the Mediterranean, and to evaluate the efficacy of marine protected areas.

Abstract Day-ahead forecasts of direct normal irradiance (DNI) from the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), the global model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), are used to simulate a concentrating solar power (CSP) plant through the System Advisor Model (SAM) to assess the potential value of the IFS in the electricity market. Although DNI forecasting from the IFS still demands advances towards cloud and aerosol representation, present results show substantial improvements with the new operational radiative scheme ecRad (cycle 43R3). A relative difference of approximately 0.12% for the total annual energy availability is found between forecasts and local measurements, while approximately 10.6% is obtained for the previous version. Results of electric energy injection to the grid from a simulated linear focus parabolic-trough system shows correlations coefficients of approximately 0.87 between hourly values of electric energy based on forecasted and measured DNI, while 0.92 are obtained for the daily values. In the context of control strategy, four operational strategies are given for different weather scenarios to handle the energy management of a CSP plant, including the effect of thermal energy storage capacity. Charge and discharge operational strategies are applied accordingly to the predicted energy availability.

This is a postprint version of the Book Chapter. Information regarding the official publication is available from the link below - Copyright @ 2011 Springer Implementation of a Life Cycle Sustainability Management (LCSM) strategy can involve significant challenges because of competing or conflicting objectives between stakeholders. These differences may, if not identified and managed, hinder successful adoption of sustainability initiatives. This article proposes a conceptual framework for stakeholder management in a LCSM context. The framework identifies the key sustainability stakeholder groups and suggests strategic ambiguity as a management tool to harness dysfunctional conflict into constructive collaboration. The framework is of practical value as it can be used as a guideline by managers who wish to improve collaboration with stakeholders along the supply chain. The article also fills a gap in the academic literature where there is only limited research on sustainability stakeholder management through strategic ambiguity.

A wireless sensor network (WSN) consists of hundreds or thousands of sensor nodes organized in an ad hoc manner to achieve a predefined goal. Although WSNs have limitations in terms of memory and processors, the main constraint that makes WSNs different from traditional networks is the battery problem which limits the lifetime of a network. Different approaches are proposed in the literature for improving the network lifetime, including data aggregation, energy efficient routing schemes, and MAC protocols. Sink node mobility is also an effective approach for improving the network lifetime. In this paper, we investigate controlled sink node mobility and present a set of algorithms for deciding where and when to move a sink node to improve network lifetime. Moreover, we give a load-balanced topology construction algorithm as another component of our solution. We did extensive simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the components of our mobility scheme and to compare our solution with static case and random movement strategy. The results show that our algorithms are effective in improving network lifetime and provide significantly better lifetime compared to static sink case and random movement strategy.