• Energy Research
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Load forecasting is very important to manage the electrical power systems. Load forecasting can be analyzed in three different ways as short-term, medium-term and long-term. Long-term load forecasting (LTLF) is in need to plan and carry on future energy demand and investment such as size of energy plant. LTLF is affected by energy consumption, national incoming per year, rates of civilization, increasing population rates and moreover economical parameters. Some of the forecasting models use mathematical formulas and statistical models such as correlation and regression analysis. In this study, a new effective expert-supported dynamic programming algorithm (ESDP) has been improved. Additionally, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and mathematical modeling (MM) are used to forecast long term energy demand. ANFIS is one of the famous artificial intelligence and has widely used to solve forecasting problems in literature. In addition to numerical inputs, ANFIS has linguistics inputs. The results obtained from ESDP, ANFIS and MM are compared to show availability. In order to show error levels mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and (MAE) are used. The obtained results show that the proposed algorithms are available.

Load forecasting is very important to manage the electrical power systems. Load forecasting can be analyzed in three different ways as short-term, medium-term and long-term. Long-term load forecasting (LTLF) is in need to plan and carry on future energy demand and investment such as size of energy plant. LTLF is affected by energy consumption, national incoming per year, rates of civilization, increasing population rates and moreover economical parameters. Some of the forecasting models use mathematical formulas and statistical models such as correlation and regression analysis. In this study, a new effective expert-supported dynamic programming algorithm (ESDP) has been improved. Additionally, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and mathematical modeling (MM) are used to forecast long term energy demand. ANFIS is one of the famous artificial intelligence and has widely used to solve forecasting problems in literature. In addition to numerical inputs, ANFIS has linguistics inputs. The results obtained from ESDP, ANFIS and MM are compared to show availability. In order to show error levels mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and (MAE) are used. The obtained results show that the proposed algorithms are available.

Abstract The oxidation characteristics of several small methyl and ethyl esters with carbon number less than six were investigated in laminar flames. The kinetics of such fuels are subsets of those of larger alkyl esters that are constituents of practical biodiesel fuels. A total of seven fuels, namely methyl formate, methyl acetate, methyl propionate, methyl butanoate, ethyl formate, ethyl acetate, and ethyl propionate were considered. Experiments were conducted at atmospheric pressure, elevated reactant temperatures, and over a wide range of equivalence ratios. Laminar flame speeds were determined in the counterflow configuration in which flow velocities were measured using particle image velocimetry. Several detailed kinetic models were tested against the experimental data, and insight was provided into the high-temperature combustion kinetics of the aforementioned fuels. Based on comparisons between experimental and computed results it became apparent that the chemistry of alkyl-ester combustion chemistry is evolving and much needs to be done in order to derive improved rate constants for a wide range of elementary steps.

Abstract The oxidation characteristics of several small methyl and ethyl esters with carbon number less than six were investigated in laminar flames. The kinetics of such fuels are subsets of those of larger alkyl esters that are constituents of practical biodiesel fuels. A total of seven fuels, namely methyl formate, methyl acetate, methyl propionate, methyl butanoate, ethyl formate, ethyl acetate, and ethyl propionate were considered. Experiments were conducted at atmospheric pressure, elevated reactant temperatures, and over a wide range of equivalence ratios. Laminar flame speeds were determined in the counterflow configuration in which flow velocities were measured using particle image velocimetry. Several detailed kinetic models were tested against the experimental data, and insight was provided into the high-temperature combustion kinetics of the aforementioned fuels. Based on comparisons between experimental and computed results it became apparent that the chemistry of alkyl-ester combustion chemistry is evolving and much needs to be done in order to derive improved rate constants for a wide range of elementary steps.

Abstract In this work addition of ethanol to high viscosity jatropha methyl ester (JME) through port injection is investigated in order to determine its effect fuel viscosity reduction on diesel engine performance. In addition to viscosity alteration, the impact of ethanol addition on combustion characteristics such as combustion duration, ignition delay and emissions levels from diesel engines fuelled with blends of ethanol, diesel and JME is studied in particular. It is found that blending of oxygenated fuels with diesel modifies the chemical structure and physical properties which again alter the engine operating conditions, combustion parameters and emissions levels. However, the injection of only 5% ethanol through port injection allows for a total of 25% blending of biofuels into diesel yet keeping the fuel characteristics close to that of conventional diesel. However, both experimental and numerical results show that ethanol addition in JME blended diesel results in a slight increase in fuel consumption and thermal efficiency for the same power outputs as that of conventional diesel fuel. Also, the combustion characteristics with ethanol addition include improved maximum in-cylinder peak pressure, cumulative heat release (CHR) rate of heat release (ROHR), in-cylinder peak temperature and combustion duration. Regarding emission characteristics the experimental results show significant reduction in smoke, carbon monoxide (CO) and total hydrocarbon (THC) emissions with extended oxygen mass percentage in the fuel at higher engine loads. However, oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emissions are found to increase at high loads although the common tradeoff between smoke and NOx is found to be more prominent for the oxygenated fuels.

Abstract In this work addition of ethanol to high viscosity jatropha methyl ester (JME) through port injection is investigated in order to determine its effect fuel viscosity reduction on diesel engine performance. In addition to viscosity alteration, the impact of ethanol addition on combustion characteristics such as combustion duration, ignition delay and emissions levels from diesel engines fuelled with blends of ethanol, diesel and JME is studied in particular. It is found that blending of oxygenated fuels with diesel modifies the chemical structure and physical properties which again alter the engine operating conditions, combustion parameters and emissions levels. However, the injection of only 5% ethanol through port injection allows for a total of 25% blending of biofuels into diesel yet keeping the fuel characteristics close to that of conventional diesel. However, both experimental and numerical results show that ethanol addition in JME blended diesel results in a slight increase in fuel consumption and thermal efficiency for the same power outputs as that of conventional diesel fuel. Also, the combustion characteristics with ethanol addition include improved maximum in-cylinder peak pressure, cumulative heat release (CHR) rate of heat release (ROHR), in-cylinder peak temperature and combustion duration. Regarding emission characteristics the experimental results show significant reduction in smoke, carbon monoxide (CO) and total hydrocarbon (THC) emissions with extended oxygen mass percentage in the fuel at higher engine loads. However, oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emissions are found to increase at high loads although the common tradeoff between smoke and NOx is found to be more prominent for the oxygenated fuels.

The Box–Jenkins model is a polynomial model that uses transfer functions to express relationships between input, output, and noise for a given system. In this article, we present a Box–Jenkins linear model for a lithium-ion battery cell for use in electric vehicles. The model parameter identifications are based on automotive drive-cycle measurements. The proposed model prediction performance is evaluated using the goodness-of-fit criteria and the mean squared error between the Box–Jenkins model and the measured battery cell output. A simulation confirmed that the proposed Box–Jenkins model could adequately capture the battery cell dynamics for different automotive drive cycles and reasonably predict the actual battery cell output. The goodness-of-fit value shows that the Box–Jenkins model matches the battery cell data by 86.85% in the identification phase, and 90.83% in the validation phase for the LA-92 driving cycle. This work demonstrates the potential of using a simple and linear model to predict the battery cell behavior based on a complex identification dataset that represents the actual use of the battery cell in an electric vehicle.

The Box–Jenkins model is a polynomial model that uses transfer functions to express relationships between input, output, and noise for a given system. In this article, we present a Box–Jenkins linear model for a lithium-ion battery cell for use in electric vehicles. The model parameter identifications are based on automotive drive-cycle measurements. The proposed model prediction performance is evaluated using the goodness-of-fit criteria and the mean squared error between the Box–Jenkins model and the measured battery cell output. A simulation confirmed that the proposed Box–Jenkins model could adequately capture the battery cell dynamics for different automotive drive cycles and reasonably predict the actual battery cell output. The goodness-of-fit value shows that the Box–Jenkins model matches the battery cell data by 86.85% in the identification phase, and 90.83% in the validation phase for the LA-92 driving cycle. This work demonstrates the potential of using a simple and linear model to predict the battery cell behavior based on a complex identification dataset that represents the actual use of the battery cell in an electric vehicle.