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Understanding the genetic bases underlying climate adaptation is a key element to predict the potential of species to face climate warming. Although substantial climate variation is observed at a micro-geographic scale, most genomic maps of climate adaptation have been established at broader geographical scales. Here, by using a Pool-Seq approach combined with a Bayesian hierarchical model that control for confounding by population structure, we performed a genome-environment association (GEA) analysis to investigate the genetic basis of adaptation to six climate variables in 168 natural populations of Arabidopsis thaliana distributed in south-west of France. Climate variation among the 168 populations represented up to 24% of climate variation among 521 European locations where A. thaliana inhabits. We identified neat and strong peaks of association, with most of the associated SNPs being significantly enriched in likely functional variants and/or in the extreme tail of genetic differentiation among populations. Furthermore, genes involved in transcriptional mechanisms appear predominant in plant functions associated with local climate adaptation. Globally, our results suggest that climate adaptation is an important driver of genomic variation in A. thaliana at a small spatial scale and mainly involves genome-wide changes in fundamental mechanisms of gene regulation. The identification of climate-adaptive genetic loci at a micro-geographic scale also highlights the importance to include within-species genetic diversity in ecological niche models for projecting potential species distributional shifts over short geographic distances.

While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.

Centaurus A (Cen A) is the nearest radio galaxy discovered as a very-high-energy (VHE; 100 GeV–100 TeV) γ-ray source by the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.). It is a faint VHE γ-ray emitter, though its VHE flux exceeds both the extrapolation from early Fermi-LAT observations as well as expectations from a (misaligned) single-zone synchrotron-self Compton (SSC) description. The latter satisfactorily reproduces the emission from Cen A at lower energies up to a few GeV. New observations with H.E.S.S., comparable in exposure time to those previously reported, were performed and eight years of Fermi-LAT data were accumulated to clarify the spectral characteristics of the γ-ray emission from the core of Cen A. The results allow us for the first time to achieve the goal of constructing a representative, contemporaneous γ-ray core spectrum of Cen A over almost five orders of magnitude in energy. Advanced analysis methods, including the template fitting method, allow detection in the VHE range of the core with a statistical significance of 12σ on the basis of 213 hours of total exposure time. The spectrum in the energy range of 250 GeV–6 TeV is compatible with a power-law function with a photon index Γ = 2.52 ± 0.13stat ± 0.20sys. An updated Fermi-LAT analysis provides evidence for spectral hardening by ΔΓ ≃ 0.4 ± 0.1 at γ-ray energies above 2.8+1.0−0.6 GeV at a level of 4.0σ. The fact that the spectrum hardens at GeV energies and extends into the VHE regime disfavour a single-zone SSC interpretation for the overall spectral energy distribution (SED) of the core and is suggestive of a new γ-ray emitting component connecting the high-energy emission above the break energy to the one observed at VHE energies. The absence of significant variability at both GeV and TeV energies does not yet allow disentanglement of the physical nature of this component, though a jet-related origin is possible and a simple two-zone SED model fit is provided to this end.

Abstract. Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation, and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform an understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems and improve our capacity to define and convey the strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium- and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.

Caribbean reefs have experienced unprecedented changes in the past four decades. Of great concern is the perceived widespread shift from coral to macroalgal dominance and the question of whether it represents a new, stable equilibrium for coral-reef communities. The primary causes of the shift-grazing pressure (top-down), nutrient loading (bottom-up) or direct coral mortality (side-in)-still remain somewhat controversial in the coral-reef literature. We have attempted to tease out the relative importance of each of these causes. Four insights emerge from our analysis of an early regional dataset of information on the benthic composition of Caribbean reefs spanning the years 1977-2001. First, although three-quarters of reef sites have experienced coral declines concomitant with macroalgal increases, fewer than 10% of the more than 200 sites studied were dominated by macroalgae in 2001, by even the most conservative definition of dominance. Using relative dominance as the threshold, a total of 49 coral-to-macroalgae shifts were detected. This total represents ~35% of all sites that were dominated by coral at the start of their monitoring periods. Four shifts (8.2%) occurred because of coral loss with no change in macroalgal cover, 15 (30.6%) occurred because of macroalgal gain without coral loss, and 30 (61.2%) occurred owing to concomitant coral decline and macroalgal increase. Second, the timing of shifts at the regional scale is most consistent with the side-in model of reef degradation, which invokes coral mortality as a precursor to macroalgal takeover, because more shifts occurred after regional coral-mortality events than expected by chance. Third, instantaneous observations taken at the start and end of the time-series for individual sites showed these reefs existed along a continuum of coral and macroalgal cover. The continuous, broadly negative relationship between coral and macroalgal cover suggests that in some cases coral-to-macroalgae phase shifts may be reversed by removing sources of perturbation or restoring critical components such as the herbivorous sea urchin Diadema antillarum to the system. The five instances in which macroalgal dominance was reversed corroborate the conclusion that macroalgal dominance is not a stable, alternative community state as has been commonly assumed. Fourth, the fact that the loss in regional coral cover and concomitant changes to the benthic community are related to punctuated, discrete events with known causes (i.e. coral disease and bleaching), lends credence to the hypothesis that coral reefs of the Caribbean have been under assault from climate-change-related maladies since the 1970s.