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Upwelling processes bring nutrient-rich waters from the deep ocean to the surface. Areas of upwelling are often associated with high productivity, offering great economic value in terms of fisheries. The sensitivity of spring/summer-time coastal upwelling systems to climate change has recently received a lot of attention. Several studies have suggested that their intensity may increase in the future while other authors have shown decreasing intensity in their equatorward portions. Yet, recent observations do not show robust evidence of this intensification. The Senegalo-Mauritanian upwelling system (SMUS) located at the southern edge of the north Atlantic system (12°N–20°N) and most active in winter/spring has been largely excluded from these studies. Here, the seasonal cycle of the SMUS and its response to climate change is investigated in the database of the Coupled Models Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Upwelling magnitude and surface signature are characterized by several sea surface temperature and wind stress indices. We highlight the ability of the climate models to reproduce the system, as well as their biases. The simulations suggest that the intensity of the SMUS winter/spring upwelling will moderately decrease in the future, primarily because of a reduction of the wind forcing linked to a northward shift of Azores anticyclone and a more regional modulation of the low pressures found over Northwest Africa. The implications of such an upwelling reduction on the ecosystems and local communities exploiting them remains very uncertain.

The Social-Ecological Systems (SES) framework serves as a valuable framework to explore and understand social and ecological interactions, and pathways in water governance. Yet, it lacks a robust understanding of change. We argue an analytical and methodological approach to engaging global changes in SES is critical to strengthening the scope and relevance of the SES framework. Relying on SES and resilience thinking, we propose an institutional and cognitive model of change that institutions and natural resources systems co-evolve to provide a dynamic understanding of SES that stands on three causal mechanisms: institutional complexity trap, rigidity trap, and learning processes. We illustrate how Data Cube technology could overcome current limitations and offer reliable avenues to test hypothesis about the dynamics of social-ecological systems and water security by offering to combine spatial and time data with no major technical requirements for users.

Abstract. Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, together with trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions with consistently derived state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources for the European Union and UK (EU27+UK). We integrate recent emission inventory data, ecosystem process-based model results, and inverse modelling estimates over the period 1990–2018. BU and TD products are compared with European National GHG Inventories (NGHGI) reported to the UN climate convention secretariat UNFCCC in 2019. For uncertainties, we used for NGHGI the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the Member States following the IPCC guidelines recommendations. For atmospheric inversion models (TD) or other inventory datasets (BU), we defined uncertainties from the spread between different model estimates or model specific uncertainties when reported. In comparing NGHGI with other approaches, a key source of bias is the activities included, e.g. anthropogenic versus anthropogenic plus natural fluxes. In inversions, the separation between anthropogenic and natural emissions is sensitive to the geospatial prior distribution of emissions. Over the 2011–2015 period, which is the common denominator of data availability between all sources, the anthropogenic BU approaches are directly comparable, reporting mean emissions of 20.8 Tg CH4 yr−1 (EDGAR v5.0) and 19.0 Tg CH4 yr−1 (GAINS), consistent with the NGHGI estimates of 18.9 ± 1.7 Tg CH4 yr−1. TD total inversions estimates give higher emission estimates, as they also include natural emissions. Over the same period regional TD inversions with higher resolution atmospheric transport models give a mean emission of 28.8 Tg CH4 yr−1. Coarser resolution global TD inversions are consistent with regional TD inversions, for global inversions with GOSAT satellite data (23.3 Tg CH4yr−1) and surface network (24.4 Tg CH4 yr−1). The magnitude of natural peatland emissions from the JSBACH-HIMMELI model, natural rivers and lakes emissions and geological sources together account for the gap between NGHGI and inversions and account for 5.2 Tg CH4 yr−1. For N2O emissions, over the 2011–2015 period, both BU approaches (EDGAR v5.0 and GAINS) give a mean value of anthropogenic emissions of 0.8 and 0.9 Tg N2O yr−1 respectively, agreeing with the NGHGI data (0.9 ± 0.6 Tg N2O yr−1). Over the same period, the average of the three total TD global and regional inversions was 1.3 ± 0.4 and 1.3 ± 0.1 Tg N2O yr−1 respectively, compared to 0.9 Tg N2O yr−1 from the BU data. The TU and BU comparison method defined in this study can be operationalized for future yearly updates for the calculation of CH4 and N2O budgets both at EU+UK scale and at national scale. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4288969 (Petrescu et al., 2020).

The syntheses of 4,4′-bis(4-dimethylaminophenyl)-6,6′-dimethyl-2,2′-bipyridine (1), 4,4′-bis(4-dimethylaminophenylethynyl)-6,6′-dimethyl-2,2′-bipyridine (2), 4,4′-bis(4-diphenylaminophenyl)-6,6′-dimethyl-2,2′-bipyridine (3), and 4,4′-bis(4-diphenylaminophenylethynyl)-6,6′-dimethyl-2,2′-bipyridine (4) are reported along with the preparations and characterisations of their homoleptic copper(I) complexes [CuL2][PF6] (L = 1–4). The solution absorption spectra of the complexes exhibit ligand-centred absorptions in addition to absorptions in the visible region assigned to a combination of intra-ligand and metal-to-ligand charge-transfer. Heteroleptic [Cu(5)(Lancillary)]+ dyes in which 5 is the anchoring ligand ((6,6′-dimethyl-[2,2′-bipyridine]-4,4′-diyl)bis(4,1-phenylene))bis(phosphonic acid) and Lancillary = 1–4 have been assembled on fluorine-doped tin oxide (FTO)-TiO2 electrodes in dye-sensitized solar cells (DSCs). Performance parameters and external quantum efficiency (EQE) spectra of the DSCs (four fully-masked cells for each dye) reveal that the best performing dyes are [Cu(5)(1)]+ and [Cu(5)(3)]+. The alkynyl spacers are not beneficial, leading to a decrease in the short-circuit current density (JSC), confirmed by lower values of EQEmax. Addition of a co-absorbent (n-decylphosphonic acid) to [Cu(5)(1)]+ lead to no significant enhancement of performance for DSCs sensitized with [Cu(5)(1)]+. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) has been used to investigate the interfaces in DSCs; the analysis shows that more favourable electron injection into TiO2 is observed for sensitizers without the alkynyl spacer and confirms higher JSC values for [Cu(5)(1)]+.

The Hyrcanian forests of Iran are mainly managed with the single-selection silvicultural technique. Despite significant ecological benefits associated with selection cutting, this type of forest management leads towards more challenging situations where it is difficult to maintain and practice successful forestry than in even-aged systems. Therefore, this study provides relevant management tools in the form of models to estimate low growth levels in Hyrcanian forests. In the present study, estimation of the population growth rate and then the allowable cut rate of these forests using a matrix model have been calculated in the Gorazbon district. For this purpose, the data of 256 permanent sample plots measured during the years between 2003 and 2012, as well as the data recorded about the trees harvested according to the forestry plan, have been used. As a first step, the most frequently occurring tree species were divided into four groups (beech, hornbeam, chestnut-leaved oak, and other species). Compartments of the district were divided into two groups of logged and unlogged compartments. The purpose of this division was to estimate the allowable cut and compare its volume with the volumes of observed and predicted allowable cuts obtained from forestry plans. The results showed that the total operated allowable cut (OAC) in logged compartments was more than the estimated allowable cut (EAC). In unlogged compartments, the total predicted allowable cut (PAC) was more than EAC. A comparison of EAC and OAC showed that hornbeam has been harvested more than its potential. However, chestnut-leaved oak and other species group have depicted opposite trends. Our models provide important advancements for estimating allowable cut that can enhance the goal of practicing sustainable forestry.

Atmospheric methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas, and its mole fraction has more than doubled since the preindustrial era. Fossil fuel extraction and use are among the largest anthropogenic sources of CH4 emissions, but the precise magnitude of these contributions is a subject of debate. Carbon-14 in CH4 (14CH4) can be used to distinguish between fossil (14C-free) CH4 emissions and contemporaneous biogenic sources; however, poorly constrained direct 14CH4 emissions from nuclear reactors have complicated this approach since the middle of the 20th century. Moreover, the partitioning of total fossil CH4 emissions (presently 172 to 195 teragrams CH4 per year) between anthropogenic and natural geological sources (such as seeps and mud volcanoes) is under debate; emission inventories suggest that the latter account for about 40 to 60 teragrams CH4 per year. Geological emissions were less than 15.4 teragrams CH4 per year at the end of the Pleistocene, about 11,600 years ago, but that period is an imperfect analogue for present-day emissions owing to the large terrestrial ice sheet cover, lower sea level and extensive permafrost. Here we use preindustrial-era ice core 14CH4 measurements to show that natural geological CH4 emissions to the atmosphere were about 1.6 teragrams CH4 per year, with a maximum of 5.4 teragrams CH4 per year (95 per cent confidence limit)—an order of magnitude lower than the currently used estimates. This result indicates that anthropogenic fossil CH4 emissions are underestimated by about 38 to 58 teragrams CH4 per year, or about 25 to 40 per cent of recent estimates. Our record highlights the human impact on the atmosphere and climate, provides a firm target for inventories of the global CH4 budget, and will help to inform strategies for targeted emission reductions.

Micro- and nanoscale patterned monolayers of plasmonic nanoparticles were fabricated by combining concepts from colloidal chemistry, self-assembly, and subtractive soft lithography. Leveraging chemical interactions between the capping ligands of pre-synthesized gold colloids and a polydimethylsiloxane stamp, we demonstrated patterning gold nanoparticles over centimeter-scale areas with a variety of micro- and nanoscale geometries, including islands, lines, and chiral structures (e.g., square spirals). By successfully achieving nanoscale manipulation over a wide range of substrates and patterns, we establish a powerful and straightforward strategy, nanoparticle chemical lift-off lithography (NP-CLL), for the economical and scalable fabrication of functional plasmonic materials with colloidal nanoparticles as building blocks, offering a transformative solution for designing next-generation plasmonic technologies.