• Energy Research
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Abstract In this study, we develop indices for the overall technical efficiency (OTE) and energy-saving target ratio (ESTR) using data envelopment analysis (DEA) to calculate the relative efficiency and energy-saving potential of 30 provinces in China from 1997 to 2014. The results are as follows: (1) the OTE of China is 79.187%, indicating that there is 20.813% potential for improvement. The OTE exhibits decreasing efficiency values from the coastal areas to the inland areas and has clear geographical relationships. The average values of OTE in the east, midland and west are 0.932, 0.694 and 0.703. Theoretically, the total energy savings of CE, HE, ME and BE are 11080.60PJ, 5124.71PJ, 4729.24PJ and 6797.39PJ. (2) Regarding CE, HE, ME and BE, the provinces with the highest comprehensive ranks are Henan, Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Gansu, which simultaneously have the greatest energy-saving potentials and energy-saving targets. (3) The HE has the largest average ESTR of 38.357% and the values for BE, CE, and ME are 25.759%, 23.874%, and 22.143%, respectively. The CE category is the greatest in total energy savings (40.171%), which is followed by BE (24.150%), HE (18.384%), and ME (17.293%).

Abstract Transportation de-carbonization is a complex problem involving the economy, population, technology and environment. Implementing the pathway simulation based on systematic methods will help to optimize the transportation sustainability plan. This study’s key motivation is that earlier research ignored the relationship between driving factors and the transmission process. To quantitatively identify the path and process of emission reduction, a hybrid system dynamics STIRPAT-SD model is proposed to explore the transportation optimization’s de-carbonization ability. This study fully considers the composition of elements and subsystems based on the STIRPAT theoretical model and visually shows the system’s feedback relationship. Transportation structural and technical optimization scenarios are set to identify the threshold reduction paths. It is found these optimization strategies have significant de-carbonization effects. And transportation structure policy has the highest de-carbonization efficiency, the emission intensity decreased by 9.1% under the TSS2 scenario (Transportation structure scenario). This study proposes a novelty model combining dynamic simulating processes with a significantly theoretical model to improve simulation and factor composition accuracy. And the joint scenario setting identifies the most effective de-carbonization pathway and clarifies the threshold of all possible pathways. Research findings can effectively track, test, predict the achievement of policy goals, and provide policy optimization references for the sustainable development related to the transportation system in practice.

China is the largest fruit producer and consumer market in the world. Understanding the growing conditions responses to climate change is the key to predict future site suitability of main cultivation areas for certain deciduous fruit trees. In this study, we used dynamic and growing degree day models driven by downscaled daily temperatures from 22 global climate models to project the effects of climate change on growing conditions for deciduous fruit trees under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios over 2 future time periods (represented by central years 2050s and 2085s) in northern China. The results showed a general increase of available winter chill for all sites under RCP4.5 scenario, and the most dramatic increase in chill accumulation could reach up to 36.8% in northeast regions for RCP8.5. However, the forecasted chill will decrease by 6.4% in southeast stations under RCP8.5 by 2085s. Additionally, the increase rate of growing season heat showed spatially consistency, and the most pronounced increase was found in the RCP8.5 by 2085s. For the southwest station, median heat accumulation increased by 20.8% in the 2050s and 37.1% in the 2085s under RCP8.5. Similar increasing range could be found in the northeast station; the median growing season heat increased by 19.8% and 38.8% in the 2050s and 2085s under RCP8.5, respectively. Moreover, the date of last spring frost was expected to advance and the frequency of frost occurrences was projected to decline in the study area compared to the past. Overall, the present study improves understanding regarding site-specific characteristics of climatic suitability for deciduous fruit tree cultivation in main producing regions of northern China. The results could provide growers and decision-makers with theoretical evidence to take adaptive measure to ensure fruit production in future.

As a relatively mature technology, biomass molded fuel (BMF) is widely used in distributed and centralized heating in China and has received considerable government attention. Although many BFM incentive policies have been developed, decreased domestic traditional fuel prices in China have caused BMF to lose its economic viability and new policy recommendations are needed to stimulate this industry. The present study built a regionalized net present value (NPV) model based on real production process simulation to test the impacts of each policy factor. The calculations showed that BMF production costs vary remarkably between regions, with the cost of agricultural briquette fuel (ABF) ranging from 86 US dollar per metric ton (USD/t) to 110 (USD/t), while that of woody pellet fuel (WPF) varies from 122 USD/t to 154 USD/t. The largest part of BMF’s cost composition is feedstock, which accounts for up 50%–60% of the total; accordingly a feedstock subsidy is the most effective policy factor, but in consideration of policy implementation, it would be better to use a production subsidy. For ABF, the optimal product subsidy varies from 26 USD/t to 57 USD/t among different regions of China, while for WPF, the range is 36 USD/t to 75 USD/t. Based on the data, a regional BMF development strategy is also proposed in this study.

China’s research on and specific implementation of energy saving for buildings are mainly concentrated in urban areas, but according to 2016 statistics, the rural population accounts for 42.65% of the total population, so rural housing has considerable energy-saving potential. However, the degree of attention to the energy consumption of rural houses needs to be improved. Regarding the research on and implementation of passive energy-saving strategies for residences, compared with centralized urban high-rise residences, rural residences mainly have independent courtyards, with a flexible layout and easier transformation. In this study, a system that uses the common cold lanes in traditional villages and buildings’ exterior walls was constructed, and the indoor spaces of courtyard buildings in southern Shaanxi were completely passively cooled in summer. This system can be completely separated from the supply of artificial energy by relying on the accumulation and buoyancy effects of air in patios and cold lanes and the hot-pressure ventilation in buildings to cool the buildings and greatly improve indoor ventilation efficiency. As the building is ventilated and cooled, the air wall formed in the system can effectively prevent direct contact between the outdoor and indoor temperatures and reduce the impact of thermal wall radiation on the interior. In previous studies on the passive design of courtyard houses, scholars considered the effect of thermal wall radiation on indoor temperature in simulations. Therefore, in this study, we also separately calculated whether to consider the difference between the situation with and without wall heat radiation (WHR) when simulating thermal conversion. The final results show that when the cooling system was adopted, the annual cooling load of the whole building was 4786.494 kW·h without WHR. However, with WHR, the cooling load reduction was 2989.128 kW·h, a difference of 1797.336 kW·h.

Abstract In this paper, coupled governing equations were proposed to simulate three-dimensional heat conduction and moisture transport in the nuclear waste repository. Because there will be a large temperature gradient near inner and outer boundaries of the bentonite buffer layer, and the heat driven moisture transport is introduced in the governing equation of moisture transport. By applying the Fourier and Laplace transforms, the governing equations were converted to the Bessel equations, and the Laplace-domain solutions to temperature and moisture distributions were derived through the inverse Fourier transform. The reliability of the proposed solutions was verified through comparative analysis with the line heat source model. These analytical solutions were applied to obtain the evolutions of temperature field and moisture distribution near the waste canister. Finally, a sensitivity study was performed to analyze the effects of relevant parameters on the heat driven moisture transport.

Abstract. Regional land carbon budgets provide insights on the spatial distribution of the land uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and can be used to evaluate carbon cycle models and to define baselines for land-based additional mitigation efforts. The scientific community has been involved in providing observation-based estimates of regional carbon budgets either by downscaling atmospheric CO2 observations into surface fluxes with atmospheric inversions, by using inventories of carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems, by upscaling local field observations such as flux towers with gridded climate and remote sensing fields or by integrating data-driven or process-oriented terrestrial carbon cycle models. The first coordinated attempt to collect regional carbon budgets for nine regions covering the entire globe in the RECCAP-1 project has delivered estimates for the decade 2000–2009, but these budgets were not comparable between regions, due to different definitions and component fluxes reported or omitted. The recent recognition of lateral fluxes of carbon by human activities and rivers, that connect CO2 uptake in one area with its release in another also requires better definition and protocols to reach harmonized regional budgets that can be summed up to the globe and compared with the atmospheric CO2 growth rate and inversion results. In this study, for the international initiative RECCAP-2 coordinated by the Global Carbon Project, which aims as an update of regional carbon budgets over the last two decades based on observations, for 10 regions covering the globe, with a better harmonization that the precursor project, we provide recommendations for using atmospheric inversions results to match bottom-up carbon accounting and models, and we define the different component fluxes of the net land atmosphere carbon exchange that should be reported by each research group in charge of each region. Special attention is given to lateral fluxes, inland water fluxes and land use fluxes.