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Abstract Branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) are increasingly used to reconstruct mean annual air temperature (MAAT) during the early Paleogene. However, the application of this proxy in coal deposits is limited and brGDGTs have only been detected in immature coals (i.e. lignites). Using samples recovered from Schoningen, Germany (∼48°N palaeolatitude), we provide the first detailed study into the occurrence and distribution of brGDGTs through a sequence of early Eocene lignites and associated interbeds. BrGDGTs are abundant and present in every sample. In comparison to modern studies, changes in vegetation type do not appear to significantly impact brGDGT distributions; however, there are subtle differences between lignites – representing peat-forming environments – and siliciclastic nearshore marine interbed depositional environments. Using the most recent brGDGT temperature calibration (MATmr) developed for soils, we generate the first continental temperature record from central-western continental Europe through the early Eocene. Lignite-derived MAAT estimates range from 23 to 26 °C while those derived from the nearshore marine interbeds exceed 20 °C. These estimates are consistent with other mid-latitude environments and model simulations, indicating enhanced mid-latitude, early Eocene warmth. In the basal part of the section studied, warming is recorded in both the lignites (∼2 °C) and nearshore marine interbeds (∼2–3 °C). This culminates in a long-term temperature maximum, likely including the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO). Although this long-term warming trend is relatively well established in the marine realm, it has rarely been shown in terrestrial settings. Using a suite of model simulations we show that the magnitude of warming at Schoningen is broadly consistent with a doubling of CO2, in agreement with late Paleocene and early Eocene pCO2 estimates.

Energy demand modelling has been widely applied in various contexts, including power plant generation, building energy simulation and demand-side management. However, it is still an ongoing research topic in terms of the choice of modelling method, feature engineering for data-driven methods, the application contexts and the type of data used. In the residential sector, survey-based and meter-based approaches are categorised according to the type of input data used, i.e. the activity records from the time use survey and energy consumption from meters respectively. These two paradigms are not necessarily easy to combine, which warrants the questions of when one may be preferred over the other and whether they need to be combined despite the significant data requirements. Other details also have a huge impact on the data structure and performance of the energy demand model, including the choice of influential factors, the historical time window of factors selected, the split between training and test data, and the choice of machine learning (ML) algorithm. There is a lack of comparative research to guide researchers and practitioners in developing energy demand modelling capability, specifically as it pertains to these issues. This study analyses three groups of test scenarios in a multi-household residential context based in the UK. Six ML algorithms (LightGBM, Random forest, ANN, SVM, KNN and LSTM), with eight sets of various influential features, at four different historical time window widths and two train-test splits were compared. An appropriate methodology was designed to capture the temporal impact of activities on energy demand and represent the overlap and interaction of activities. The results show that the combination of meter-based and survey-based energy demand models performs better in terms of modelling accuracy and robustness against sudden load variation. Particularly, integrating energy tariffs, household and individual attributes, appliance usage and general activity features can improve the energy demand model. Among the ML algorithms, LightGBM and ANN perform better than other algorithms while LSTM and SVM may not be suitable in this multi-household short monitoring context.

AbstractThe Fram Strait is the only deep gateway between the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic Seas and thus is a key area to study past changes in ocean circulation and the marine carbon cycle. Here, we study deep ocean temperature, δ18O, carbonate chemistry (i.e., carbonate ion concentration [CO32−]), and nutrient content in the Fram Strait during the late glacial (35,000–19,000 years BP) and the Holocene based on benthic foraminiferal geochemistry and carbon cycle modeling. Our results indicate a thickening of Atlantic water penetrating into the northern Nordic Seas, forming a subsurface Atlantic intermediate water layer reaching to at least ∼2,600 m water depth during most of the late glacial period. The recirculating Atlantic layer was characterized by relatively high [CO32−] and low δ13C during the late glacial, and provides evidence for a Nordic Seas source to the glacial North Atlantic intermediate water flowing at 2,000–3,000 m water depth, most likely via the Denmark Strait. In addition, we discuss evidence for enhanced terrestrial carbon input to the Nordic Seas at ∼23.5 ka. Comparing our δ13C and qualitative [CO32−] records with results of carbon cycle box modeling suggests that the total terrestrial CO2 release during this carbon input event was low, slow, or directly to the atmosphere.

The united nations educational, scientific and cultural organization (UNESCO) considers the historic urban landscapes as the world heritages. Managing historic city centers and maintaining historic cores are the emerging challenges for sustainable urban planning. Today, the historic cores form an important part of the economic, social, environmental, and physical assets and capacities of contemporary cities, and play a strategic role in their development. One of the most important approaches to the development of central textures, especially in historical and cultural cities, is the sustainable urban regeneration approach, which encompasses all aspects of sustainability, such as the economic, social, cultural and environmental aspects. To maintain sustainability and regeneration of historic cores of cities, it is necessary to provide insight into the underlying characteristics of the local urbanization. Furthermore, the fundamental assets are to be investigated as indicators of sustainable regeneration and drivers of urban development. In the meantime, a variety of research and experience has taken place around the world, all of which has provided different criteria and indicators for the development of strategies for the historic cores of cities. The present study, through a meta-analytic and survey method, analyzing the experience and research reported in 139 theoretical and empirical papers in the last twenty years, seeks to provide a comprehensive conceptual model taking into account the criteria and indices of sustainable regeneration in historic cores of cities. The quality of the survey has been ensured using the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analysis (PRISMA).

This paper presents an optimal control strategy for a district heating power plant with thermal energy storage. The main goal of the control strategy is to reduce the operation costs of the power plant, by scheduling the boilers, the operation of the thermal energy storage and the curtailment on the loads. The problem is stated as a constrained optimization in the form of a Mixed Integer Linear Program (MILP), embedded on an Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework. Particular attention is paid to modeling of boilers operating constraints, including the outlet water flow temperature, to the energy exchanged with the thermal energy storage and to the operating modes of the power plant layout, including the constraints related to the supply water temperature needed from the network. The results are performed using the data and the layout of the power plant located in the city of Ylivieska, in Finland. The cost analysis performed shows the advantages of using the predictive control strategy.

L'aquaculture joue un rôle important dans la sécurité alimentaire et fournit des moyens de subsistance et des emplois à des millions de personnes dans les communautés côtières du monde entier. Cependant, le secteur aquacole en pleine croissance a également suscité des débats sur sa durabilité écologique à long terme, sa viabilité économique, les inégalités sociales potentielles et les problèmes de gouvernance. Nous avons étudié les défis et les opportunités perçus pour parvenir à une aquaculture durable du crabe de boue dans les régions côtières tropicales en utilisant l'étude de cas des fermes côtières de crabe de boue dans l'Andhra Pradesh, en Inde. Sur la base des perceptions et des données financières indicatives d'un échantillon de parties prenantes, nous avons étudié les résultats économiques potentiels dans différents scénarios représentant des niveaux de rendement, des facteurs de risque et des périodes de projet variables. Les principaux risques identifiés par les parties prenantes étaient associés à l'approvisionnement limité en graines de crabe de boue et au manque d'accès aux programmes de soutien gouvernementaux et non gouvernementaux. Il n'y a pas de tampons financiers, donc des épidémies majeures ou des conditions météorologiques extrêmes causées par le changement climatique entraîneraient une perte de moyens de subsistance. Cet article met également en évidence le facteur le plus critique déterminant le niveau de succès de l'élevage du crabe de boue étant le taux de survie du crabe qui est influencé par une variété de facteurs, y compris l'augmentation de la température de la surface de la mer. Les résultats de cette étude montrent que l'élevage de crabes de boue à petite échelle comporte moins de risques et une plus grande flexibilité que l'élevage de crabes de boue à grande échelle. Il pourrait s'agir d'une entreprise économiquement durable et servir d'outil de réduction de la pauvreté dans les pays en développement si un soutien et une formation en matière de microfinance sont disponibles. La acuicultura desempeña un papel importante en la seguridad alimentaria y proporciona medios de subsistencia y empleo a millones de personas en las comunidades costeras de todo el mundo. Sin embargo, el creciente sector de la acuicultura también ha creado debates en torno a su sostenibilidad ecológica a largo plazo, viabilidad económica, posibles desigualdades sociales y problemas de gobernanza. Investigamos los desafíos y oportunidades percibidos para lograr una acuicultura sostenible de cangrejo de fango en las regiones costeras tropicales utilizando el estudio de caso de las granjas costeras de cangrejo de fango en Andhra Pradesh, India. Con base en las percepciones y los datos financieros indicativos de una muestra de partes interesadas, investigamos los posibles resultados económicos en diferentes escenarios que representan diferentes niveles de rendimiento, factores de riesgo y períodos de tiempo del proyecto. Los principales riesgos identificados por las partes interesadas se asociaron con el suministro limitado de semillas de cangrejo de fango y la falta de acceso a esquemas de apoyo gubernamentales y no gubernamentales. No hay amortiguadores financieros, por lo tanto, los grandes brotes de enfermedades o las condiciones climáticas extremas causadas por el cambio climático conducirían a la pérdida de los medios de vida. Este documento también destaca que el factor más crítico que determina el nivel de éxito del cultivo de cangrejo de fango es la tasa de supervivencia del cangrejo, que está influenciada por una variedad de factores, incluido el aumento de la temperatura de la superficie del mar. Los resultados de este estudio muestran que el cultivo de cangrejo de fango a pequeña escala tiene menos riesgos y una mayor flexibilidad que el cultivo de cangrejo de fango a gran escala. Podría ser una empresa económicamente sostenible y servir como una herramienta para el alivio de la pobreza en los países en desarrollo si se dispone de apoyo y capacitación en microfinanzas. Aquaculture plays a significant role in food security and provides livelihoods and employment for millions of people among coastal communities worldwide. However, the growing aquaculture sector has also created debates around its long-term ecological sustainability, economic viability, potential social inequalities and governance issues. We investigated the perceived challenges and opportunities to achieving sustainable mud crab aquaculture in tropical coastal regions by using the case study of coastal mud crab farms in Andhra Pradesh, India. Informed by perceptions and indicative financial data from a sample of stakeholders we investigated the potential economic outcomes under different scenarios representing varying yield levels, risk factors and project time periods. The main risks identified by the stakeholders were associated with the limited supply of mud crab seeds and the lack of access to governmental and non-governmental support schemes. There are no financial buffers, therefore major disease outbreaks or extreme weather conditions caused by climate change would lead to a loss of livelihoods. This paper also highlights the most critical factor determining the level of success of mud crab farming being the crab survival rate which is influenced by a variety of factors including increasing sea surface temperature. The results of this study show that small-scale mud crab farming has fewer risks and higher flexibility involved than large-scale mud crab farming. It could be an economically sustainable enterprise and serve as a tool for poverty alleviation in developing countries if microfinance support and training are available. تلعب تربية الأحياء المائية دورًا مهمًا في الأمن الغذائي وتوفر سبل العيش وفرص العمل لملايين الأشخاص بين المجتمعات الساحلية في جميع أنحاء العالم. ومع ذلك، فإن قطاع تربية الأحياء المائية المتنامي قد خلق أيضًا مناقشات حول استدامته البيئية طويلة الأجل، وقابليته الاقتصادية، وعدم المساواة الاجتماعية المحتملة، وقضايا الحوكمة. لقد حققنا في التحديات والفرص المتصورة لتحقيق تربية مستدامة لسرطان البحر الطيني في المناطق الساحلية الاستوائية باستخدام دراسة حالة لمزارع سرطان البحر الطيني الساحلية في ولاية أندرا براديش، الهند. استنادًا إلى التصورات والبيانات المالية الإرشادية من عينة من أصحاب المصلحة، قمنا بالتحقيق في النتائج الاقتصادية المحتملة في ظل سيناريوهات مختلفة تمثل مستويات عائد متفاوتة وعوامل خطر وفترات زمنية للمشروع. ارتبطت المخاطر الرئيسية التي حددها أصحاب المصلحة بمحدودية المعروض من بذور سرطان البحر الطيني وعدم الوصول إلى خطط الدعم الحكومية وغير الحكومية. لا توجد حواجز مالية، وبالتالي فإن تفشي الأمراض الرئيسية أو الظروف الجوية القاسية الناجمة عن تغير المناخ ستؤدي إلى فقدان سبل العيش. تسلط هذه الورقة الضوء أيضًا على العامل الأكثر أهمية الذي يحدد مستوى نجاح زراعة سرطان البحر الطيني وهو معدل بقاء سرطان البحر الذي يتأثر بمجموعة متنوعة من العوامل بما في ذلك زيادة درجة حرارة سطح البحر. تظهر نتائج هذه الدراسة أن زراعة سرطان البحر الطيني على نطاق صغير تنطوي على مخاطر أقل ومرونة أعلى من زراعة سرطان البحر الطيني على نطاق واسع. يمكن أن يكون مشروعًا مستدامًا اقتصاديًا وأن يكون بمثابة أداة للتخفيف من حدة الفقر في البلدان النامية إذا توفر الدعم والتدريب في مجال التمويل الأصغر.