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Abstract This article will investigate just how much the manufacturing industry will have to improve the efficiency in use of non-renewable metal resources in a sustainable way from now until the year 2050, if industry is to provide material wealth to an ever growing world population with an ever growing demand for wealth. Given this development, the future demand for reduction in the use of the metals aluminum, tin, copper, silver and zinc by industry is projected forward to the year 2050. Scenarios determining pool dynamics include three scenarios for primary production: a projection of the present trend (exponential growth), a 2% extraction scenario and a no extraction scenario. The calculations show that the best long-term strategy for industry is a limitation to extraction, as, for example, suggested by the 2% extraction scenario. Further, the role of recycling in preserving the pool of a resource in use is emphasized. By varying the recycling rate, pool sizes for aluminum, tin, copper, silver and zinc are also projected forward to the year 2050. Recycling scenarios in this context are the present trend projection (exponential growth), full recycling and no recycling. The calculations clearly show that without an intensified focus on recycling, we cannot hope to fulfil even the most modest ambitions for sustainability in the use of metal resources. The paper goes on to investigate feasible courses of action, including trends in product design, like miniaturization, extended product life, substitution and design for recycling. It is argued that the best product-related strategy for industry is miniaturization. The paper does not deal solely with the issue of resource depletion, but rather with the industrial improvements in resource use needed to enable a continued (sustainable) supply of metals until the year 2050. The results of this study cannot be directly compared to other studies limiting themselves to the issue of resource depletion, as this study specifically deals with the extent of demands on industry for improvements in metal resource use.

We introduce several new resilience metrics for quantifying the resilience of critical material supply chains to disruptions and validate these metrics using the 2010 rare earth element (REE) crisis as a case study. Our method is a novel application of Event Sequence Analysis, supplemented with interviews of actors across the entire supply chain. We discuss resilience mechanisms in quantitative terms-time lags, response speeds, and maximum magnitudes-and in light of cultural differences between Japanese and European corporate practice. This quantification is crucial if resilience is ever to be taken into account in criticality assessments and a step toward determining supply and demand elasticities in the REE supply chain. We find that the REE system showed resilience mainly through substitution and increased non-Chinese primary production, with a distinct role for stockpiling. Overall, annual substitution rates reached 10% of total demand. Non-Chinese primary production ramped up at a speed of 4% of total market volume per year. The compound effect of these mechanisms was that recovery from the 2010 disruption took two years. The supply disruption did not nudge a system toward an appreciable degree of recycling. This finding has important implications for the circular economy concept, indicating that quite a long period of sustained material constraints will be necessary for a production-consumption system to naturally evolve toward a circular configuration.

The goal of providing universal energy access to all by 2030 under the UN‐led SE4ALL initiative calls for new and innovative solutions to rural electrification and is fuelling the recent interest in mini‐grids. Mini‐grid solutions are emerging as a third alternative to rural electrification, coming between the option of large‐scale grid extension and pico‐scale stand‐alone solutions like solar home systems or solar lanterns. International expectations of mini‐grids are high, with the International Energy Agency suggesting that they will play a significant role in reaching the goal of universal access. Based on a detailed review of past, ongoing, and planned mini‐grids in East Africa, this study seeks to deconstructs the popular notion of mini‐grids for rural electrification in East Africa. The study reveals that so far activities carried out under the heading of mini‐grids to a large extent consist of the hybridization of existing utility‐owned electricity systems for medium‐size towns located far from the grid, which does not necessarily contribute to rural electrification. However, limited but increasing activity is identified regarding the use of mini‐grids to bring electricity to rural villages and smaller rural towns. This is of specific interest because it is for this type of mini‐grid that the main challenges are to be found with respect to identifying and testing adequate financing, ownership, and business models. Based on the trajectories identified for mini‐grids for rural electrification and the challenges identified in the literature, the study concludes by proposing three avenues for further research. WIREs Energy Environ 2016, 5:570–587. doi: 10.1002/wene.205This article is categorized under: Energy and Development > Systems and Infrastructure Energy and Development > Climate and Environment

As conflicts between emissions reductions and economic growth intensify, an increasing number of countries and regions are focusing on green total factor productivity (GTFP). Financial agglomeration (QWS), resource endowment (SE), and innovation-driven (ID) are the main factors that cause regional differences in GTFP. However, few scholars have comprehensively considered the impact of the interaction between SE, ID, and QWS on GTFP. This article uses the Global Malmquist-Luenberger (GML) index to calculate the GTFP of 30 Chinese provinces from 2003 to 2020 and constructs a dynamic panel model to present the first comprehensive study of the interactions between SE, ID, and QWS and their relationship with GTFP. The conclusions are as follows. (1) SE is positively correlated with GTFP, which is different from the “resource curse” theory proposed by existing research. (2) There is a crowding-out effect between SE and ID, and their interaction will restrain the growth of GTFP. (3) QWS promotes ID, and the interaction between the two promotes the growth of GTFP. (4) There is a restraining effect between QWS and SE, and their interaction will hinder the growth of GTFP. (5) The key policy directions to improve China's GTFP are to undertake strategic planning from a comprehensive perspective, including encouraging innovation, guiding financial development reasonably, and avoiding excessive consumption of resources.

All countries in Europe have road fuel taxes and these account for roughly half of the net fuel price. We compare current road fuel taxes and corrective taxes, estimated on the basis of negative externalities from road transport for 22 European countries, taking into account the effect of fuel taxation on fuel efficiency. We focus on cars running on diesel or petrol and commercial vehicles running on diesel. If fuel taxes were intended to internalize all road transport externalities, then a number of countries could be considered to be on the right path already in what respects petrol taxation. Diesel, on the other hand, seems to be under-taxed in all 22 countries. Petrol tax increases would be in order in some countries and diesel tax increases would be in order in all 22 countries, at least as a bridge until fine-tuned policies, such as widespread peak congestion pricing or pay-as-you-drive insurance can be put in place.

We model energy demand across five end-use sectors and 15 energy products in Saudi Arabia, generating comprehensive price and income elasticity estimates. Using the Structural Time Series Model, we demonstrate that the trends underlying energy demand are generally stochastic, underscoring the importance of using such models for estimating unbiased elasticities. Our estimates reveal that energy demand in Saudi Arabia is price inelastic in all cases and income inelastic in most cases, with industrial natural gas and electricity being the only exceptions. Nevertheless, we find extensive variation in the elasticities across sectors and energy products, highlighting the importance of using sector- and product-specific elasticity values and not assuming they are similar in the same country. We then use our estimated elasticities to conduct a welfare analysis of the energy price reforms implemented in 2016 and 2018. Our analysis reveals that the 2016 reform delivered a total annual welfare gain of 11.6 billion 2010 United States Dollars (USD) in 2016. Following the 2018 reform, the annual welfare gain increased to 17.0 billion 2010 USD in 2018. We also estimate the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions avoided between 2016 and 2018 due to energy price reform at 164 million tonnes.

Malaysian palm oil mills have lagged behind in the adoption of advanced milling technologies, both to support productivity growth as well as meet sustainable development goals. Using primary data from a simple random sample of 54 mills, this study sought to examine the factors explaining the adoption of advanced milling technologies. The results from the logit regressions deployed show that top management support and mill size act as key drivers of new technology adoption. Importantly, organizational factors were more critical in the adoption of advanced milling technologies than technological and environmental factors. However, financial support and resources, technical skills, complexity, cost, and government support produced negative coefficients among the non-adopters. The results should help mill owners, managers, and policymakers to remove the barriers facing the non-adopters, and to create effective strategies to stimulate the adoption of advanced milling technologies.

The security of energy supply has again become a similarly hot topic as it was during the oil crises in the 1970s, not least due to the recent historical oil price peaks. In this paper, we analyze the energy security situation of the G7 countries using a statistical risk indicator and empirical energy data for the years 1978 through 2007. We find that Germany's energy supply risk has risen substantially since the oil price crises of the 1970s, whereas France has managed to reduce its risk dramatically, most notably through the deployment of nuclear power plants. As a result of the legally stipulated nuclear phase-out, Germany's supply risk can be expected to rise further and to approach the level of Italy. Due to its resource poverty, Italy has by far the highest energy supply risk among G7 countries.