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Abstract. Flooding in the Amazon basin is frequently attributed to modes of large-scale climate variability, but little attention is paid to how these modes influence the timing and duration of floods despite their importance to early warning systems and the significant impacts that these flood characteristics can have on communities. In this study, river discharge data from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS 2.1) and observed data at 58 gauging stations are used to examine whether positive or negative phases of several Pacific and Atlantic indices significantly alter the characteristics of river flows throughout the Amazon basin (1979–2015). Results show significant changes in both flood magnitude and duration, particularly in the north-eastern Amazon for negative El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases when the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is positioned in the central tropical Pacific. This response is not identified for the eastern Pacific index, highlighting how the response can differ between ENSO types. Although flood magnitude and duration were found to be highly correlated, the impacts of large-scale climate variability on these characteristics are non-linear; some increases in annual flood maxima coincide with decreases in flood duration. The impact of flood timing, however, does not follow any notable pattern for all indices analysed. Finally, observed and simulated changes are found to be much more highly correlated for negative ENSO phases compared to the positive phase, meaning that GloFAS struggles to accurately simulate the differences in flood characteristics between El Niño and neutral years. These results have important implications for both the social and physical sectors working towards the improvement of early warning action systems for floods.

Abstract. Flooding in the Amazon basin is frequently attributed to modes of large-scale climate variability, but little attention is paid to how these modes influence the timing and duration of floods despite their importance to early warning systems and the significant impacts that these flood characteristics can have on communities. In this study, river discharge data from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS 2.1) and observed data at 58 gauging stations are used to examine whether positive or negative phases of several Pacific and Atlantic indices significantly alter the characteristics of river flows throughout the Amazon basin (1979–2015). Results show significant changes in both flood magnitude and duration, particularly in the north-eastern Amazon for negative El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases when the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is positioned in the central tropical Pacific. This response is not identified for the eastern Pacific index, highlighting how the response can differ between ENSO types. Although flood magnitude and duration were found to be highly correlated, the impacts of large-scale climate variability on these characteristics are non-linear; some increases in annual flood maxima coincide with decreases in flood duration. The impact of flood timing, however, does not follow any notable pattern for all indices analysed. Finally, observed and simulated changes are found to be much more highly correlated for negative ENSO phases compared to the positive phase, meaning that GloFAS struggles to accurately simulate the differences in flood characteristics between El Niño and neutral years. These results have important implications for both the social and physical sectors working towards the improvement of early warning action systems for floods.

FAERE Working Paper, 2019.23 ; While environmental values are spreading among societies, theyhardly lead to effective political actions. This may be due to an overestimation of the sharing of those values among people, or to a lack ofpolitical power of environmentalists vis-à-vis materialist citizens. Wepropose a theoretical model to investigate these two channels, based ona setup a la Grossman and Helpman (1994), in which lobby is a strategy available to social groups, in order to influence the government onenvironmental taxes. Because societies have being historically markedby materialist habits, citizens sharing those habits face lower costswhen getting organized. By considering endogenous lobby formation ala Mitra (1999), we show that, in order for environmental and materialist lobbies to coexist, the society must be mixed enough. Based on adynamic framework a la Besley and Persson (2019), we investigate howsocial values change over time. Whenever lobbying by materialists prevails, a unique social equilibrium exists, featuring a stable hegemonyby materialist values. If environmentalists get organized too, a secondsocial equilibrium emerges, that is locally stable and more favorableto them. However, the threshold might be very high, above which thecultural transition effectively takes off. By calibrating the model, westudy counter-acting forces allowing to improve the odds of the environmental transition, such as cultural mutations, social-signaling, andlowering organizational costs. Finally, we provide policy implications. ; Alors que les valeurs environnementales se répandent dans les sociétés, elles ne débouchent guère sur des actions politiques efficaces. Cela peut être dû à une surestimation du partage de ces valeurs entre les gens, ou à un manque de pouvoir politique des écologistes vis-à-vis des citoyens matérialistes. Nous proposons un modèle théorique pour investiguer ces deux canaux, basé sur un cadre à la Grossman et Helpman (1994), dans lequel le lobbying est une stratégie à la disposition des ...

FAERE Working Paper, 2019.23 ; While environmental values are spreading among societies, theyhardly lead to effective political actions. This may be due to an overestimation of the sharing of those values among people, or to a lack ofpolitical power of environmentalists vis-à-vis materialist citizens. Wepropose a theoretical model to investigate these two channels, based ona setup a la Grossman and Helpman (1994), in which lobby is a strategy available to social groups, in order to influence the government onenvironmental taxes. Because societies have being historically markedby materialist habits, citizens sharing those habits face lower costswhen getting organized. By considering endogenous lobby formation ala Mitra (1999), we show that, in order for environmental and materialist lobbies to coexist, the society must be mixed enough. Based on adynamic framework a la Besley and Persson (2019), we investigate howsocial values change over time. Whenever lobbying by materialists prevails, a unique social equilibrium exists, featuring a stable hegemonyby materialist values. If environmentalists get organized too, a secondsocial equilibrium emerges, that is locally stable and more favorableto them. However, the threshold might be very high, above which thecultural transition effectively takes off. By calibrating the model, westudy counter-acting forces allowing to improve the odds of the environmental transition, such as cultural mutations, social-signaling, andlowering organizational costs. Finally, we provide policy implications. ; Alors que les valeurs environnementales se répandent dans les sociétés, elles ne débouchent guère sur des actions politiques efficaces. Cela peut être dû à une surestimation du partage de ces valeurs entre les gens, ou à un manque de pouvoir politique des écologistes vis-à-vis des citoyens matérialistes. Nous proposons un modèle théorique pour investiguer ces deux canaux, basé sur un cadre à la Grossman et Helpman (1994), dans lequel le lobbying est une stratégie à la disposition des ...

Abstract The central role of occupants for achieving energy savings in residential buildings is increasingly recognised. Simulation programmes able to take into account occupant behaviour are considered to be powerful tools for bridging the gap between the predicted and the actual energy consumption for new buildings. Nevertheless, the majority of residential buildings that will constitute the housing stock in 2050 have already been built today, therefore occupant behaviour and building simulation tools need to be fully exploited for supporting the renovation of existing housing stock. The aim of this paper is to explore the role of occupant behaviour modelling in supporting decision-makers dealing with the design of renovation strategies for residential buildings. An Italian multi-family public housing building is assumed as case study to estimate the influence of three dimensions linked with occupant behaviour – management of the thermostat, management of the heating system, variation of building characteristics – on energy heating consumption. The results show that, while the occupant behaviour influences the heating loads up to 1/3 in case of high level of building retrofit, the less the building is renovated, the higher is the behavioural impact in absolute terms of energy reduction. Therefore, in order to be effective, renovation strategies are required to design appropriate informative instruments at an early stage to support behaviour changes towards responsible energy consumption.

Abstract The central role of occupants for achieving energy savings in residential buildings is increasingly recognised. Simulation programmes able to take into account occupant behaviour are considered to be powerful tools for bridging the gap between the predicted and the actual energy consumption for new buildings. Nevertheless, the majority of residential buildings that will constitute the housing stock in 2050 have already been built today, therefore occupant behaviour and building simulation tools need to be fully exploited for supporting the renovation of existing housing stock. The aim of this paper is to explore the role of occupant behaviour modelling in supporting decision-makers dealing with the design of renovation strategies for residential buildings. An Italian multi-family public housing building is assumed as case study to estimate the influence of three dimensions linked with occupant behaviour – management of the thermostat, management of the heating system, variation of building characteristics – on energy heating consumption. The results show that, while the occupant behaviour influences the heating loads up to 1/3 in case of high level of building retrofit, the less the building is renovated, the higher is the behavioural impact in absolute terms of energy reduction. Therefore, in order to be effective, renovation strategies are required to design appropriate informative instruments at an early stage to support behaviour changes towards responsible energy consumption.

The main objective of this paper is to illustrate the current state of the art of the newborn smart gas grid concept. We provide a detailed discussion of the envisaged features of the smart gas grid, giving attention to both the related academic literature and to the ongoing world-wide projects. In doing so, we also discuss the potentialities of rethinking the smart grid paradigm from the perspective of a whole energy system, that both encompasses the electrical and the gas grid, and identify some critical key aspects that must be handled while developing the new smart energy paradigm.