• Energy Research
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Water quality safety has attracted global attention and is closely related to the development of the social economy and human health. It is widely recognized that climate change and human activities significantly affect water quality changes. Therefore, quantifying the contributions of factors that drive long-term water quality changes is crucial for effective water quality management. Here, we built a climate-water quality assessment framework (CWQAF) based on climate-water quality response coefficients and trend analysis methods, to achieve this goal. Our results showed that the water quality improved significantly by 4.45%-20.54% from 2011 to 2020 in the Minjiang River basin (MRB). Human activities (including the construction of ecological projects, stricter discharge measures, etc.) were the main driving factors contributing 65%-77% of the improvement effect. Notably, there were differences in the contributions of human activities to water quality parameter changes, such as DO (increase (I): 0.12 mg/L, human contribution (HC): 66.8%), CODMn (decrease (D): 0.71 mg/L, HC: 67.2%), BOD5 (D: 1.10 mg/L, HC: 77.7%), CODCr (D: 4.20 mg/L, HC: 81.2%), TP (D: 0.13 mg/L,HC: 72.8%) and NH3-N (D: 0.40 mg/L, HC: 63.0%). Climate change explained 23%-35% of the variation in water quality. The water quality response to climate change was relatively significant with precipitation. For example, the downstream region was more susceptible to climate change than was the upstream region, as the downstream movement of precipitation centers strengthened the process of climatic factors affecting water quality changes in the MRB. Generally, although human activities were the main driving factor of water quality changes at the basin scale, the contribution of climate change could not be ignored. This study provided a manageable framework for the quantitative analysis of the influence of human activities and climate change on water quality to enable more precise and effective water quality management.

Mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions has many health co-benefits and is a top public health priority. Policies to limit emissions are associated with improvements across a wide range of public health outcomes, including, among other impacts, obesity, acute respiratory infections among children, and ischaemic heart disease in adults [1]. However, recognition that climate change is already underway has led to an increasing focus on adaptation. Studies projecting the impacts of future climate change on health date back to the late 1980s, and their number has grown substantially in recent years. Climate change impact assessments generally use the output of global climate models (GCMs). Here, we profile, and suggest means for addressing, the challenges associated with the use of GCM projections for impact studies to inform adaptation. GCMs provide projections of the climate at a typical resolution of about 100 km2. Such low precision is of limited use to decision-makers trying to determine how climate change might affect their particular district, town, or even country. Often, a regional climate model is employed to ‘downscale’ the output of the global model to a resolution considered more useful for practical applications. Climate model output can then be used to drive disease models or to investigate the risks of surpassing health-relevant climate thresholds in the future.

AbstractThere is growing awareness among governments, businesses, and the general public of risks arising from changes to our climate on time scales from months through to decades. Some climatic changes could be unprecedented in their harmful socioeconomic impacts, while others with adequate forewarning and planning could offer benefits. There is therefore a pressing need for decision-makers, including policy-makers, to have access to and to use high-quality, accessible, relevant, and credible climate information about the past, present, and future to help make better-informed decisions and policies. We refer to the provision and use of such information as climate services. Established programs of research and operational activities are improving observations and climate monitoring, our understanding of climate processes, climate variability and change, and predictions and projections of the future climate. Delivering climate information (including data and knowledge) in a way that is usable and useful for decision-makers has had less attention, and society has yet to optimally benefit from the available information. While weather services routinely help weather-sensitive decision-making, similar services for decisions on longer time scales are less well established. Many organizations are now actively developing climate services, and a growing number of decision-makers are keen to benefit from such services. This article describes progress made over the past decade developing, delivering, and using climate services, in particular from the worldwide effort galvanizing around the Global Framework for Climate Services under the coordination of UN agencies. The article highlights challenges in making further progress and proposes potential new directions to address such challenges.

The frequency and severity of flooding events will increase over the coming decades due to global climate change. While close attention has typically been paid to infrastructural and environmental outcomes of flood events, the potential adverse human health consequences associated with post-event consumption from private groundwater sources have received minimal attention, leading to a poor understanding of private well users' preparedness and the drivers of positive behavioural adoption. The current study sought to quantify the capacity of private well users to cope with flood-triggered contamination risks and identify the social psychological determinants of proactive attitudes in the Republic of Ireland, using a cross-sectional questionnaire incorporating two distinct models of health behaviour, the Health Belief Model and Risk-Attitude-Norms-Ability-Self Regulation model. Adoption of healthy behaviours prior to flooding was evaluated with respect to respondents' risk exposure, risk experience and risk perception, in addition to systematic supply stewardship under normal conditions. Associations between adoption of protective behaviours and perception, experience and socio-demographic factors were evaluated through multinomial and multiple logistic regressions, while a multi-model inferential approach was employed with the predictors of health behaviour models. Findings suggest that floods are not considered likely to occur, nor were respondents worried about their occurrence, with 72.5% of respondents who reported previous flooding experience failing to adopt protective actions. Prior experience of well water contamination increased adoption of proactive attitudes when flooding occurred (+47%), with a failure to adopt healthy behaviours higher among rural non-agricultural residents (136%). Low levels of preparedness to deal with flood-related contamination risks are a side-effect of the general lack of appropriate well stewardship under normal conditions; just 10.1% of respondents adopted both water treatment and frequent testing, in concurrence with limited risk perception and poor awareness of the nexus between risk factors (e.g. floods, contamination sources) and groundwater quality. Perceived risk, personal norms and social norms were the best predictors of protective behaviour adoption and should be considered when developing future awareness campaigns.

Synthetic waters imitating BOD(5) test conditions have been studied to model the progress curves of cell growth, organic matter consumption and oxygen demand. Glucose and glutamic acid were used as organic matter and Bacillus subtilis, Escherichia coli and Pseudomonas putida as microorganisms. The concentrations of all the products were measured simultaneously over time and were fitted to the Logistic and Monod models. Following this, the goodness of fit was analysed. Discrimination between models allowed us to conclude that the Logistic model has acceptable accuracy to describe the kinetic behaviour inside a BOD(5) bottle, while the extra parameter in the Monod model would not be statistically justified. Thus, the logistic parameters were determined under different conditions by non-linear regression and their biological meaning was interpreted.

Significant volumes of research over the past four decades has sought to elucidate the social, infrastructural, economic, and human health effects of climate change induced surface flooding. To date, epidemiological and public health studies of flooding events have focused on mental health effects, vector-borne diseases, and infectious enteric disease due to floodwater contact (i.e. typically low consumption rates). The inherent nature of groundwater (i.e. out of sight, out of mind) and the widely held belief that aquifers represent a pristine source of drinking water due to natural attenuation may represent the "perfect storm" causing direct consumption of relatively large volumes of surface flood-contaminated groundwater. Accordingly, the current study sought to systematically identify and synthesize all available peer-reviewed literature pertaining to the nexus between surface flooding, groundwater contamination and human gastroenteric outcomes. Just 14 relevant studies were found to have been published during the period 1980-2017, thus highlighting the fact that this potentially significant source of climate-related exposure to environmental infection has remained understudied to date. Studies differed significantly in terms of type and data reporting procedures, making it difficult to discern clear trends and patterns. Approximately 945 confirmed cases of flood-related enteric disease were examined across studies; these concurred with almost 10,000 suspected cases, equating to approximately 20 suspected cases per confirmed case. As such, no regional, national or global estimates are available for the human gastrointestinal health burden of flood-related groundwater contamination. In light of the demonstrable public health significance of the concurrent impacts of groundwater susceptibility and climate change exacerbation, strategies to increase awareness about potential sources of contamination and motivate precautionary behaviour (e.g. drinking water testing and treatment, supply interruptions) are necessary. Mainstreaming climate adaptation concerns into planning policies will also be necessary to reduce human exposure to waterborne sources of enteric infection.

Climate change is expected to increase the chance of extreme rainfall events in the Northern Hemisphere and herewith, there is an increased chance of urban pluvial flooding. Urban pluvial flooding often consists of street flooding and/or flooding of combined sewerage systems, leading to contamination of the floodwater with several gastrointestinal and/or respiratory pathogens. An increase in flooding events therefore pose a health risk to those exposed to urban floodwater. We studied the association between exposure to pluvial floodwater and acute gastroenteritis (AGE) and acute respiratory infection (ARI).We performed a retrospective, cross-sectional survey during the summer of 2015 in 60 locations in the Netherlands with reported flooding. Two weeks after the flooding, questionnaires were sent to households in these locations, collecting data on self-reported AGE and ARI and information on floodwater exposure in the previous 2 weeks. Multivariable generalized estimating equations (GEE) regression models, accounting for the clustered data structure, were used to identify risk factors for AGE and ARI.In total, 699 households with 1,656 participants (response rate 21%) returned the questionnaire. Contact with floodwater was significantly associated with AGE (aOR 4.2, 95%CI 2.1-8.4) and ARI (aOR 3.3, 95%CI 2.0-5.4). Risk factors for AGE were skin contact with floodwater (aOR 4.0, 95%CI 1.8-9.0), performing post-flooding cleaning operations (aOR 8.6, 95%CI 3.5-20.9) and cycling through floodwater (aOR 2.3, 95%CI 1.0-5.0). Skin contact with floodwater (aOR 3.6, 95%CI 1.9-6.9) and performing post-flooding cleaning operations (aOR 5.5, 95%CI 3.0-10.3) were identified as risk factors for ARI.Results suggest an association between direct exposure to pluvial floodwater and AGE and ARI. As it is predicted that the frequency of pluvial flooding events will increase in the future, there is a need for flood-proof solutions in urban development and increased awareness among stakeholders and the public about the potential health risks. Future prospective studies are recommended to confirm our results.