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Phenological sequences: how early‐season events define those that follow

doi: 10.1002/ajb2.1174
pmid: 30324664
Premise of the StudyPlant phenology is a critical trait, as the timings of phenophases such as budburst, leafout, flowering, and fruiting, are important to plant fitness. Despite much study about when individual phenophases occur and how they may shift with climate change, little is known about how multiple phenophases relate to one another across an entire growing season. We test the extent to which early phenological stages constrain later ones, throughout a growing season, across 25 angiosperm tree species.MethodsWe observed phenology (budburst, leafout, flowering, fruiting, and senescence) of 118 individual trees across 25 species, from April through December 2015.Key ResultsWe found that early phenological events weakly constrain most later events, with the strongest constraints seen between consecutive stages. In contrast, interphase duration was a much stronger predictor of phenology, especially for reproductive events, suggesting that the development time of flowers and fruits may constrain the phenology of these events.ConclusionsMuch of the variation in later phenological events can be explained by the timing of earlier events and by interphase durations. This highlights that a shift in one phenophase may often have cascading effects on later phases. Accurate forecasts of climate change impacts should therefore include multiple phenophases within and across years.
- Tufts University United States
- Harvard University United States
- University of British Columbia Canada
- Arnold Arboretum United States
- Arnold Arboretum United States
Climate, Climate Change, Reproduction, Flowers, Trees, Seasons, Weather, Boston
Climate, Climate Change, Reproduction, Flowers, Trees, Seasons, Weather, Boston
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).58 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
