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Amplified warming of extreme temperatures over tropical land

<p>Extreme temperatures have warmed substantially over recent decades and are projected to continue warming in response to future climate change. Warming of extreme temperatures is amplified over land where the impacts on human health, wildfire risk and food production are most severe. Using simulations with climate models, I show that hot days over tropical land warm substantially more than the average day. For example, warming of the hottest 1% of land days is 24% larger than the time-mean warming averaged across models. The climate-change response of extreme temperatures over tropical land is interpreted using a theory based on atmospheric dynamics. According to the theory, warming is amplified for hot land days because those days are dry: I term this the "drier get hotter" mechanism. Changes in near-surface relative humidity further increase tropical land warming , with decreases in land relative humidity particularly important. The theory advances physical understanding of the tropical climate and highlights land-surface dryness as a key factor determining how extreme temperatures will respond to future climate change.</p>
- THE CHANCELLOR, MASTERS AND SCHOLARS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD United Kingdom
- University of St Andrews United Kingdom
- University of Oxford United Kingdom
- University of St Andrews United Kingdom
- University of Oxford United Kingdom
Atmospheric dynamics, GE, 550, 500, 3rd-DAS, AC, Projection and prediction, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Climate change, SDG 2 - Zero Hunger, Climate sciences, GE Environmental Sciences
Atmospheric dynamics, GE, 550, 500, 3rd-DAS, AC, Projection and prediction, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Climate change, SDG 2 - Zero Hunger, Climate sciences, GE Environmental Sciences
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).59 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1%
