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Use, calibration and verification of agroecological models for boreal environments: A review

Authors: Forster, Daniel; Helama, Samuli; Harrison, Matthew; Rotz, Clarence; Chang, Jinfeng; Ciais, Phillippe; Pattey, Elizabeth; +2 Authors

Use, calibration and verification of agroecological models for boreal environments: A review

Abstract

AbstractPast assessments report negative impacts of the climate crisis in boreal areas; but milder and shorter winters and elevated atmospheric CO2may provide opportunities for agricultural productivity potentially playing a significant role in future food security. Arable cropping systems are expanding in boreal areas, but the regional mainstay will likely continue to be livestock production. Agroecological models can when appropriately calibrated and evaluated, facilitate improved productivity while minimising environmental impacts by identifying system interactions, and quantifying greenhouse gas emissions, soil carbon stocks and fertiliser use. While models designed for temperate and tropical zones abound, few are developed specifically for boreal zones, and there is uncertainty around the performance of existing models in boreal areas. We reviewed model performance across boreal environments and management systems. We identified a dearth of modelling studies in boreal regions, with the publication of three or less papers per year since the year 2000, constituting a significant research gap. Models IFSM and BASGRA_N performed best in grassland production, DNDC best in predicting soil N2O and NH3emissions. No model outperformed all others, strengthening the case for ensemble modelling. Existing agroecological models would be worthy of further evaluation, providing model improvements designed for boreal systems.

Countries
Finland, France
Keywords

330, Agriculture (General), 630, carbon-nitrogen cycling, S1-972, SB1-1110, boreal region carbon-nitrogen cycling ecophysiological modelling greenhouse gas emissions soil carbon, boreal region, soil carbon, carbon–nitrogen cycling, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, greenhouse gas emissions, Plant culture, ecophysiological modelling, [SDU.ENVI] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 004, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    3
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
gold