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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Environmental Monito...arrow_drop_down
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Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
License: Springer TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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Realizing certainty in an uncertain future climate: modeling suitable areas for conserving wild Citrus species under different change scenarios in India

Authors: S K, Barik; Mukunda Dev, Behera; D, Adhikari;

Realizing certainty in an uncertain future climate: modeling suitable areas for conserving wild Citrus species under different change scenarios in India

Abstract

Citrus is an important horticultural crop of India and is often prone to diseases, particularly under increased temperature scenarios. For developing disease-resistant Citrus varieties, conservation of wild relatives is extremely important. However, our knowledge on temperature tolerance of these wild relatives of Citrus to varied climate change scenarios is extremely limited. Therefore, we determined the climatic niche of six wild relatives of cultivated Citrus species (C. indica Tanaka, C. karna Rafin., C. latipes (Swingle) Tanaka, C. macroptera Montrouz., C. medica L., and C. sinensis (L.) Osbeck.) and identified the geographical areas in India that would remain climatically stable in future through ecological niche modeling (ENM). Raster data on 19 bioclimatic variables with a resolution of 0.04° were used to generate niche models for each Citrus species that delineated their potential distribution areas. Future species distribution predictions for the year 2050 were made using the climate change scenarios from the most appropriate climate models, i.e., IPSL-CM5A-LR and NIMR-HADGEM2-AO with four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Ensemble of current and future projections was used to identify climatically stable areas for each species. Precipitation-related bioclimatic variables were the key climatic determinants for the modeled distribution pattern. The consensus of current and future projections suggests that most areas with stable climates for the species in the future would be available in the northeastern states of Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Mizoram, and Tripura. Efforts for in situ conservation and establishment of germplasm banks and citrus orchards may be encouraged in these identified areas.

Keywords

Citrus, Climate Change, India, Ecosystem, Environmental Monitoring

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
6
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%