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Biological Conservation
Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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Forecasting marine invasions under climate change: Biotic interactions and demographic processes matter

Authors: Camille Mellin; Camille Mellin; M.A. MacNeil; Samuel A. Matthews; Samuel A. Matthews; M.J. Caley; M.J. Caley; +5 Authors

Forecasting marine invasions under climate change: Biotic interactions and demographic processes matter

Abstract

Biological invasions are one of the most significant threats to marine biodiversity, and can be facilitated and amplified by climate change. Among all aspects of invasion biology, biotic interactions between invaders and native species are of particular importance. They strongly influence the invasion velocity as well as species responses to climate-induced stressors. Yet the effects of biotic interactions and other important demographic processes remain overlooked among most studies of climate-mediated invasions. We critically assessed current modelling techniques for forecasting marine invasions under climate change, with a particular focus on their ability to account for important biotic interactions and demographic processes. We show that coupled range dynamics models currently represent the most comprehensive and promising approach for modelling and managing marine invasions under climate change. We show, using the crown-of-thorns seastar (Acanthaster planci), why model architectures that account for biotic interactions and demographic and spatial processes (and their interaction) are required to provide ecologically realistic predictions of the distribution and abundance of invader species, both under present-day conditions and into the future. We suggest potential solutions to inform data-poor situations, such as Bayesian parameter estimation and meta-analysis, and identify strategic and targeted gaps in marine invasion research.

Countries
Australia, United Kingdom
Keywords

570, Exotic species, Biotic interactions, Alien species, Metapopulation model, 333, Range shift, Non-indigenous species, Acanthaster planci, Climate change, Marine biodiversity, Crown-of-thorns seastar

  • BIP!
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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    35
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
35
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green