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To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?

Authors: Anne-Isabelle Graux; Shailesh Shrestha; Margarita Ruiz-Ramos; Dave J. Bartley; Renáta Sándor; Ludwig Lauwers; Pytrik Reidsma; +19 Authors

To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers?

Abstract

Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers' views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.

Countries
Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Norway, Italy, Spain, Norway, Belgium, Sweden, France, Germany, Denmark, United Kingdom, United Kingdom, Netherlands
Keywords

[SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Technology and Engineering, 330, DECISION-MAKING, modèle, 333, 630, LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION, Article, modelling, 636, Climate change, DAIRY FARMS, Adaptation, Agricultural Science, global change, agriculture, modélisation, FARM-LEVEL ADAPTATION, numerical models, [SDV.SA] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, changement climatique, GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS, LAND-USE, VDP::Landbruks- og Fiskerifag: 900, FOOD SECURITY, CROP, Adaptation; Agricultural modelling; Climate change; Research challenges, Research challenges, Agricultural modelling, Adaptation;Agricultural modelling;Climate change;Research challenges, ADAPTING AGRICULTURE, CHANGE IMPACTS, Agricultural sciences, Agricultrual modelling, Earth and Environmental Sciences, front de recherche, Sciences agricoles

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    15
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
15
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
hybrid