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Crop model improvement reduces the uncertainty of the response to temperature of multi-model ensembles

handle: 10568/79746
To improve climate change impact estimates and to quantify their uncertainty, multi-model ensembles (MMEs) have been suggested. Model improvements can improve the accuracy of simulations and reduce the uncertainty of climate change impact assessments. Furthermore, they can reduce the number of models needed in a MME. Herein, 15 wheat growth models of a larger MME were improved through re-parameterization and/or incorporating or modifying heat stress effects on phenology, leaf growth and senescence, biomass growth, and grain number and size using detailed field experimental data from the USDA Hot Serial Cereal experiment (calibration data set). Simulation results from before and after model improvement were then evaluated with independent field experiments from a CIMMYT world-wide field trial network (evaluation data set). Model improvements decreased the variation (10th to 90th model ensemble percentile range) of grain yields simulated by the MME on average by 39% in the calibration data set and by 26% in the independent evaluation data set for crops grown in mean seasonal temperatures >24 °C. MME mean squared error in simulating grain yield decreased by 37%. A reduction in MME uncertainty range by 27% increased MME prediction skills by 47%. Results suggest that the mean level of variation observed in field experiments and used as a benchmark can be reached with half the number of models in the MME. Improving crop models is therefore important to increase the certainty of model-based impact assessments and allow more practical, i.e. smaller MMEs to be used effectively.
- Michigan State University United States
- UNIVERSITE PARIS DESCARTES France
- University of Bonn Germany
- CGIAR Consortium France
- Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) Germany
[SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, 550, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, modelización de los cultivos, simulation models, Wheat crop model, multi-model ensemble, impact uncertainty, 630, high temperature, model improvement, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, [SDV.BV] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, Multi-model ensemble, modelos de simulación, [SDV.SA] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Model improvement, ddc:550, Impact uncertainty, High temperature, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, climate change, wheat crop model, temperatura alta, heat, cambio climático, crop modelling
[SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, 550, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, modelización de los cultivos, simulation models, Wheat crop model, multi-model ensemble, impact uncertainty, 630, high temperature, model improvement, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, [SDV.BV] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, Multi-model ensemble, modelos de simulación, [SDV.SA] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Model improvement, ddc:550, Impact uncertainty, High temperature, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, climate change, wheat crop model, temperatura alta, heat, cambio climático, crop modelling
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).129 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1%
