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How robust are global conservation priorities to climate change?

International conservation organisations have identified priority areas for biodiversity conservation. These global-scale prioritisations affect the distribution of funds for conservation interventions. As each organisation has a different focus, each prioritisation scheme is determined by different decision criteria and the resultant priority areas vary considerably. However, little is known about how the priority areas will respond to the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we examined the robustness of eight global-scale prioritisations to climate change under various climate predictions from seven global circulation models. We developed a novel metric of the climate stability for 803 ecoregions based on a recently introduced method to estimate the overlap of climate envelopes. The relationships between the decision criteria and the robustness of the global prioritisation schemes were statistically examined. We found that decision criteria related to level of endemism and landscape fragmentation were strongly correlated with areas predicted to be robust to a changing climate. Hence, policies that prioritise intact areas due to the likely cost efficiency, and assumptions related to the potential to mitigate the impacts of climate change, require further examination. Our findings will help determine where additional management is required to enable biodiversity to adapt to the impacts of climate change.
- University of Queensland Australia
- University of Geneva Switzerland
- University of Queensland Australia
- University of Queensland Australia
- University of Lausanne Switzerland
Terrestrial ecoregions, adaptive management, International biodiversity conservation, Monitoring, 2306 Global and Planetary Change, Climate stability index, decision making, 333, Climate envelopes, Climate change, Biodiversity hotspots, biodiversity, decision analysis, Planning and Development, Policy and Law, 3305 Geography, climate prediction, prioritization, conservation management, international organization, climate change, endemism, 2308 Management, 2303 Ecology, globalization, ecoregion
Terrestrial ecoregions, adaptive management, International biodiversity conservation, Monitoring, 2306 Global and Planetary Change, Climate stability index, decision making, 333, Climate envelopes, Climate change, Biodiversity hotspots, biodiversity, decision analysis, Planning and Development, Policy and Law, 3305 Geography, climate prediction, prioritization, conservation management, international organization, climate change, endemism, 2308 Management, 2303 Ecology, globalization, ecoregion
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).30 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
