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Disentangling diverse responses to climate change among global marine ecosystem models

Authors: Jeroen Steenbeek; Jan Volkholz; Derek P. Tittensor; William W. L. Cheung; Hubert Du Pontavice; Cheryl S. Harrison; Didier Gascuel; +22 Authors

Disentangling diverse responses to climate change among global marine ecosystem models

Abstract

Climate change is warming the ocean and impacting lower trophic level (LTL) organisms. Marine ecosystem models can provide estimates of how these changes will propagate to larger animals and impact societal services such as fisheries, but at present these estimates vary widely. A better understanding of what drives this inter-model variation will improve our ability to project fisheries and other ecosystem services into the future, while also helping to identify uncertainties in process understanding. Here, we explore the mechanisms that underlie the diversity of responses to changes in temperature and LTLs in eight global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP). Temperature and LTL impacts on total consumer biomass and ecosystem structure (defined as the relative change of small and large organism biomass) were isolated using a comparative experimental protocol. Total model biomass varied between −35% to +3% in response to warming, and -17% to +15% in response to LTL changes. There was little consensus about the spatial redistribution of biomass or changes in the balance between small and large organisms (ecosystem structure) in response to warming, an LTL impacts on total consumer biomass varied depending on the choice of LTL forcing terms. Overall, climate change impacts on consumer biomass and ecosystem structure are well approximated by the sum of temperature and LTL impacts, indicating an absence of nonlinear interaction between the models' drivers. Our results highlight a lack of theoretical clarity about how to represent fundamental ecological mechanisms, most importantly how temperature impacts scale from individual to ecosystem level, and the need to better understand the two-way coupling between LTL organisms and consumers. We finish by identifying future research needs to strengthen global marine ecosystem modelling and improve projections of climate change impacts.

Countries
Australia, Australia, France, United States, France, Spain, France, Australia, Australia, Australia, Spain, France, Germany
Keywords

[SDE] Environmental Sciences, 570, Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts, marine ecology FishMIP, 550, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, 551, Oceanography, Modelling, Marine ecology, Structural uncertainty, modelling, fishery oceanography, Climate change, climatic change, marine ecology, structural uncertainty, //metadata.un.org/sdg/13 [http], Geology, FishMIP, Fish MIP, MIP, Climatic change, Climate Action, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Fish, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Fishery oceanography

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
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64
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65
104
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