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Chinese Rice Production Area Adaptations to Climate Changes, 1949–2010

doi: 10.1021/es505624x
pmid: 25625767
Climate change has great impact on cropping system. Understanding how the rice production system has historically responded to external forces, both natural and anthropogenic, will provide critical insights into how the system is likely to respond in the future. The observed historic rice movement provides insights into the capability of the rice production system to adapt to climate changes. Using province-level rice production data and historic climate records, here we show that the centroid of Chinese rice production shifted northeastward over 370 km (2.98°N in latitude and 1.88°E in longitude) from 1949 to 2010. Using a linear regression model, we examined the driving factors, in particular climate, behind such rice production movement. While the major driving forces of the rice relocation are such social economic factors as urbanization, irrigation investment, and agricultural or land use policy changes, climate plays a significant role as well. We found that temperature has been a significant and coherent influence on moving the rice center in China and precipitation has had a significant but less spatially coherent influence.
- Sun Yat-sen University China (People's Republic of)
- International Food Policy Research Institute India
- International Food Policy Research Institute India
- International Food Policy Research Institute United States
- Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences China (People's Republic of)
China, Conservation of Natural Resources, Agricultural Irrigation, Climate, Climate Change, Rain, Urbanization, Temperature, Geographic Mapping, Agriculture, Oryza, History, 20th Century, Models, Theoretical, History, 21st Century
China, Conservation of Natural Resources, Agricultural Irrigation, Climate, Climate Change, Rain, Urbanization, Temperature, Geographic Mapping, Agriculture, Oryza, History, 20th Century, Models, Theoretical, History, 21st Century
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).73 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
