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Earth's Future
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Earth's Future
Article
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Earth's Future
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Observed Northward Migration of Agro‐Climate Zones in Europe Will Further Accelerate Under Climate Change

Authors: A. Ceglar; M. Zampieri; A. Toreti; F. Dentener;

Observed Northward Migration of Agro‐Climate Zones in Europe Will Further Accelerate Under Climate Change

Abstract

This study focuses on the northward shift of homogeneous agro‐climate zones in Europe analyzed for the observed past and projected climate conditions for the next decades. Statistical cluster analysis is used to derive eight main agro‐climatic zones driven by two agro‐meteorological indicators, namely, active temperature sum and thermal growing season length. The northward shift of homogeneous agro‐climate zones and the corresponding change of crop growth suitability are analyzed together with the change of exposure of crops to temperature‐related climate extremes during the growing season. Gradual warming over Europe has contributed to a lengthening of the growing season and an increased active temperature accumulation, accompanied by more frequent occurrence of warm extreme climate events. Using a set of five high‐resolution regional climate scenarios, we calculate that a major part of Europe will be affected by further northward climate zone migration. In the next decades, the migration of agro‐climatic zones in Eastern Europe may reach twice the velocity observed during the period 1975–2016. Several regions of the Mediterranean may lose suitability to grow specific crops in favor of northern European regions. This indicator‐based assessment suggests that the potential advantages of the lengthening of the thermal growing season in northern and eastern Europe are often outbalanced by the risk of late frost and increased risk of early spring and summer heat waves.

Related Organizations
Keywords

agro‐climate zone, Ecology, heat stress, Europe, Environmental sciences, climate change, migration velocity, GE1-350, QH540-549.5, agriculture

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    80
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
    influence
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    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
80
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
gold