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Multimodel Evaluation of Nitrous Oxide Emissions From an Intensively Managed Grassland

Authors: Val Snow; Lutz Merbold; Lutz Merbold; Robert M. Rees; Paul C. D. Newton; Katja Klumpp; Nina Buchmann; +10 Authors

Multimodel Evaluation of Nitrous Oxide Emissions From an Intensively Managed Grassland

Abstract

AbstractProcess‐based models are useful for assessing the impact of changing management practices and climate on yields and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems such as grasslands. They can be used to construct national GHG inventories using a Tier 3 approach. However, accurate simulations of nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes remain challenging. Models are limited by our understanding of soil‐plant‐microbe interactions and the impact of uncertainty in measured input parameters on simulated outputs. To improve model performance, thorough evaluations against in situ measurements are needed. Experimental data of N2O emissions under two management practices (control with typical fertilization versus increased clover and no fertilization) were acquired in a Swiss field experiment. We conducted a multimodel evaluation with three commonly used biogeochemical models (DayCent in two variants, PaSim, APSIM in two variants) comparing four years of data. DayCent was the most accurate model for simulating N2O fluxes on annual timescales, while APSIM was most accurate for daily N2O fluxes. The multimodel ensemble average reduced the error in estimated annual fluxes by 41% compared to an estimate using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)‐derived method for the Swiss agricultural GHG inventory (IPCC‐Swiss), but individual models were not systematically more accurate than IPCC‐Swiss. The model ensemble overestimated the N2O mitigation effect of the clover‐based treatment (measured: 39–45%; ensemble: 52–57%) but was more accurate than IPCC‐Swiss (IPCC‐Swiss: 72–81%). These results suggest that multimodel ensembles are valuable for estimating the impact of climate and management on N2O emissions.

Countries
Germany, United Kingdom, Switzerland, France, Italy, France, France
Keywords

Atmospheric Science, model validation, 550, Supplementary Data, QH301 Biology, biogeochemical modelling, Oceanography, 630, UNCERTAINTIES, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), Water Science and Technology, GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS, nitrous oxide, Ecology, greenhouse gas emissions, Palaeontology, N2O, Forestry, biogeochemical cycle, climate change, Geophysics, NE/M016900/1, SIMULATION, NE/K002589/1, CO2, CARBON STOCKS, FLUXES, 330, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, biogeochemical modeling, Soil Science, Aquatic Science, BIOGEOCHEMICAL MODELS, QH301, DayCent, Geochemistry and Petrology, SYSTEMS, eddy covariance, APSIM, Earth-Surface Processes, PaSim, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, process‐based modeling, ddc:550, Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), SOIL, Earth sciences, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Space and Planetary Science, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), BB/N013484/1

  • BIP!
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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    22
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
22
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
hybrid