Causes and implications of the unforeseen 2016 extreme yield loss in the breadbasket of France
Copyright policy )Causes and implications of the unforeseen 2016 extreme yield loss in the breadbasket of France
AbstractIn 2016, France, one of the leading wheat-producing and wheat-exporting regions in the world suffered its most extreme yield loss in over half a century. Yet, yield forecasting systems failed to anticipate this event. We show that this unprecedented event is a new type of compound extreme with a conjunction of abnormally warm temperatures in late autumn and abnormally wet conditions in the following spring. A binomial logistic regression accounting for fall and spring conditions is able to capture key yield loss events since 1959. Based on climate projections, we show that the conditions that led to the 2016 wheat yield loss are projected to become more frequent in the future. The increased likelihood of such compound extreme events poses a challenge: farming systems and yield forecasting systems, which often support them, must adapt.
Weather Shocks, Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture, Science, Climate Change, Soil Science, Yield (engineering), Quantum mechanics, Environmental science, Agricultural and Biological Sciences, Agroforestry Systems and Biodiversity Enhancement, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Event (particle physics), Biology, Ecosystem, Triticum, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Climatology, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Ecology, Atmosphere, Physics, Q, Temperature, Risk Management and Vulnerability in Agriculture, Life Sciences, Forestry, Agriculture, Geology, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Materials science, FOS: Biological sciences, Metallurgy, France, Seasons, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Forecasting
Weather Shocks, Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture, Science, Climate Change, Soil Science, Yield (engineering), Quantum mechanics, Environmental science, Agricultural and Biological Sciences, Agroforestry Systems and Biodiversity Enhancement, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Event (particle physics), Biology, Ecosystem, Triticum, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Climatology, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Ecology, Atmosphere, Physics, Q, Temperature, Risk Management and Vulnerability in Agriculture, Life Sciences, Forestry, Agriculture, Geology, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Materials science, FOS: Biological sciences, Metallurgy, France, Seasons, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Forecasting
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