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Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

Authors: Hubert Du Pontavice; Jeroen Steenbeek; Cheryl S. Harrison; Cheryl S. Harrison; William W. L. Cheung; Nicolas Barrier; Camilla Novaglio; +36 Authors

Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

Abstract

AbstractProjections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.

Countries
Australia, Australia, Spain, France, Spain, United States, Germany, France, France, France, France, France, Australia, Australia, France, France, Spain, Australia, Spain
Keywords

Atmospheric sciences, 570, 550, Environmental Science and Management, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Environmental Studies, 551, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, UNCERTAINTIES, Article, Atmospheric Sciences, climate models, Physical geography and environmental geoscience, Life Below Water, FORMULATION, Other environmental sciences, Ecological modelling, Marine biology, VULNERABILITY, Science & Technology, ecosystem models, Climate-change ecology, CHANGE IMPACTS, Climate Action, [SDE.BE] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, MODEL, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, climate change, Physical Sciences, PLANKTON, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, FISHERIES, Environmental Sciences, SYSTEM, RESPONSES, ACIDIFICATION

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
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141
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54
159
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