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Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems
AbstractProjections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.
- University of Southampton United Kingdom
- Spanish National Research Council Spain
- Louisiana State University United States
- University of Chicago United States
- Griffith University Australia
Atmospheric sciences, 570, 550, Environmental Science and Management, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Environmental Studies, 551, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, UNCERTAINTIES, Article, Atmospheric Sciences, climate models, Physical geography and environmental geoscience, Life Below Water, FORMULATION, Other environmental sciences, Ecological modelling, Marine biology, VULNERABILITY, Science & Technology, ecosystem models, Climate-change ecology, CHANGE IMPACTS, Climate Action, [SDE.BE] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, MODEL, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, climate change, Physical Sciences, PLANKTON, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, FISHERIES, Environmental Sciences, SYSTEM, RESPONSES, ACIDIFICATION
Atmospheric sciences, 570, 550, Environmental Science and Management, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Environmental Studies, 551, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, UNCERTAINTIES, Article, Atmospheric Sciences, climate models, Physical geography and environmental geoscience, Life Below Water, FORMULATION, Other environmental sciences, Ecological modelling, Marine biology, VULNERABILITY, Science & Technology, ecosystem models, Climate-change ecology, CHANGE IMPACTS, Climate Action, [SDE.BE] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, MODEL, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, climate change, Physical Sciences, PLANKTON, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, FISHERIES, Environmental Sciences, SYSTEM, RESPONSES, ACIDIFICATION
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