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Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest

pmid: 35917341
pmc: PMC9371734
Tipping elements are nonlinear subsystems of the Earth system that have the potential to abruptly shift to another state if environmental change occurs close to a critical threshold with large consequences for human societies and ecosystems. Among these tipping elements may be the Amazon rainforest, which has been undergoing intensive anthropogenic activities and increasingly frequent droughts. Here, we assess how extreme deviations from climatological rainfall regimes may cause local forest collapse that cascades through the coupled forest–climate system. We develop a conceptual dynamic network model to isolate and uncover the role of atmospheric moisture recycling in such tipping cascades. We account for heterogeneity in critical thresholds of the forest caused by adaptation to local climatic conditions. Our results reveal that, despite this adaptation, a future climate characterized by permanent drought conditions could trigger a transition to an open canopy state particularly in the southern Amazon. The loss of atmospheric moisture recycling contributes to one-third of the tipping events. Thus, by exceeding local thresholds in forest adaptive capacity, local climate change impacts may propagate to other regions of the Amazon basin, causing a risk of forest shifts even in regions where critical thresholds have not been crossed locally.
ddc:500, Rainforest, 550, Amazon rainforest, droughts, Climate Change, Institut für Physik und Astronomie, tipping cascades, climate tipping elements, 333, network dynamics, Droughts, Trees, Physical Sciences, SDG 13 - Climate Action, General
ddc:500, Rainforest, 550, Amazon rainforest, droughts, Climate Change, Institut für Physik und Astronomie, tipping cascades, climate tipping elements, 333, network dynamics, Droughts, Trees, Physical Sciences, SDG 13 - Climate Action, General
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).43 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1%
