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Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling

pmid: 22889171
Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented in this paper, applied to relative humidity, but it could be adopted to other variables if needed.
- Danish Meteorological Institute Denmark
- Aarhus University Denmark
- Danish Meteorological Institute Denmark
Crops, Agricultural, Food Safety, Databases, Factual, Climate Change, precipitation, relative humidity, Models, Biological, Spatio-Temporal Analysis, mycotoxins, Animals, Humans, Weather, Fungi, Uncertainty, method validation, temperature, Agriculture, crop phenology, Mycotoxins, Europe, Forecasting
Crops, Agricultural, Food Safety, Databases, Factual, Climate Change, precipitation, relative humidity, Models, Biological, Spatio-Temporal Analysis, mycotoxins, Animals, Humans, Weather, Fungi, Uncertainty, method validation, temperature, Agriculture, crop phenology, Mycotoxins, Europe, Forecasting
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).22 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
