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Spatiotemporal pattern of global forest change over the past 60 years and the forest transition theory

النمط المكاني والزماني للتغير العالمي للغابات على مدى السنوات الستين الماضية ونظرية انتقال الغابات
Authors: Ronald C. Estoque; Rajarshi Dasgupta; Karina Winkler; Valerio Avitabile; Brian Alan Johnson; Soe W. Myint; Yan Gao; +3 Authors

Spatiotemporal pattern of global forest change over the past 60 years and the forest transition theory

Abstract

Abstract Forest ecosystems play an indispensable role in addressing various pressing sustainability and social-ecological challenges such as climate change and biodiversity loss. However, global forest loss has been, and still is today, an important issue. Here, based on spatially explicit data, we show that over the past 60 years (1960–2019), the global forest area has declined by 81.7 million ha (i.e. 10% more than the size of the entire Borneo island), with forest loss (437.3 million ha) outweighing forest gain (355.6 million ha). With this forest decline and the population increase (4.68 billion) over the period, the global forest per capita has decreased by over 60%, from 1.4 ha in 1960 to 0.5 ha in 2019. The spatiotemporal pattern of forest change supports the forest transition theory, with forest losses occurring primarily in the lower income countries in the tropics and forest gains in the higher income countries in the extratropics. Furthermore, economic growth has a stronger association with net forest gain than with net forest loss. Our results highlight the need to strengthen the support given to lower income countries, especially in the tropics, to help improve their capacity to minimize or end their forest losses. To help address the displacement of forest losses to the lower income countries in the tropics, higher income nations need to reduce their dependence on imported tropical forest products.

Countries
Germany, Netherlands
Keywords

550, Economics, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, forest, land cover, Natural resource economics, Sociology, Climate change, Intact forest landscape, GE1-350, SDGs, TD1-1066, biodiversity, Global and Planetary Change, Global Analysis of Ecosystem Services and Land Use, Geography, Ecology, forest ecosystems, Physics, Q, Per capita, Biodiversity, FOS: Sociology, forest transition, climate change, Sustainability, Physical Sciences, low income countries, land use change, forest loss displacement, Science, QC1-999, Forest restoration, Population, Environmental science, Global Forest Transition, Agroforestry, Biology, Ecosystem, Demography, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, ddc:550, global forest loss, Tropics, land use, Ecoforestry, Environmental sciences, Earth sciences, Climate Change Impacts on Forest Carbon Sequestration, FOS: Biological sciences, Environmental Science, Forest ecology, Drivers and Impacts of Tropical Deforestation

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    36
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
36
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 1%
Green
gold