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Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities

Ecologists have long studied patterns, directions and tempos of change, but there is a pressing need to extend current understanding to empirical observations of abrupt changes as climate warming accelerates. Abrupt changes in ecological systems (ACES)—changes that are fast in time or fast relative to their drivers—are ubiquitous and increasing in frequency. Powerful theoretical frameworks exist, yet applications in real-world landscapes to detect, explain and anticipate ACES have lagged. We highlight five insights emerging from empirical studies of ACES across diverse ecosystems: (i) ecological systems show ACES in some dimensions but not others; (ii) climate extremes may be more important than mean climate in generating ACES; (iii) interactions among multiple drivers often produce ACES; (iv) contingencies, such as ecological memory, frequency and sequence of disturbances, and spatial context are important; and (v) tipping points are often (but not always) associated with ACES. We suggest research priorities to advance understanding of ACES in the face of climate change. Progress in understanding ACES requires strong integration of scientific approaches (theory, observations, experiments and process-based models) and high-quality empirical data drawn from a diverse array of ecosystems.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions’
- UNIVERSITY OF GUELPH Canada
- University of Wisconsin–Oshkosh United States
- University of Wyoming United States
- King’s University United States
- University of California System United States
disturbance, Evolutionary Biology, 550, regime shift, ecological memory, Climate Change, thresholds, 577, Biological Sciences, Medical and Health Sciences, 333, Climate Action, resilience, Ecosystem
disturbance, Evolutionary Biology, 550, regime shift, ecological memory, Climate Change, thresholds, 577, Biological Sciences, Medical and Health Sciences, 333, Climate Action, resilience, Ecosystem
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).230 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 0.1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 0.1%
