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Forecasting parasite sharing under climate change

Species are shifting their distributions in response to climate change. This geographic reshuffling may result in novel co-occurrences among species, which could lead to unseen biotic interactions, including the exchange of parasites between previously isolated hosts. Identifying potential new host–parasite interactions would improve forecasting of disease emergence and inform proactive disease surveillance. However, accurate predictions of future cross-species disease transmission have been hampered by the lack of a generalized approach and data availability. Here, we propose a framework to predict novel host–parasite interactions based on a combination of niche modelling of future host distributions and parasite sharing models. Using the North American ungulates as a proof of concept, we show this approach has high cross-validation accuracy in over 85% of modelled parasites and find that more than 34% of the host–parasite associations forecasted by our models have already been recorded in the literature. We discuss potential sources of uncertainty and bias that may affect our results and similar forecasting approaches, and propose pathways to generate increasingly accurate predictions. Our results indicate that forecasting parasite sharing in response to shifts in host geographic distributions allow for the identification of regions and taxa most susceptible to emergent pathogens under climate change. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe’.
- University of Alcalá Spain
- University of British Columbia Canada
- Hakai Institute Canada
- George Mason University United States
- University of South Carolina Lancaster United States
Climate Change, Models, Biological, Host-Parasite Interactions, North America, Animals, Parasitology, Perissodactyla, Artiodactyla, Forecasting
Climate Change, Models, Biological, Host-Parasite Interactions, North America, Animals, Parasitology, Perissodactyla, Artiodactyla, Forecasting
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).32 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
