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Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050
AbstractDespite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity.One Sentence SummaryDevelopment pathways exist that allow for a reduction of the rates of biodiversity loss from land-use change and improvement in regulating services but climate change poses an increasing challenge.
- Yale University United States
- Bangor University
- Goddard Space Flight Center United States
- Sapienza University of Rome Italy
- Université Catholique de Louvain Belgium
570, Provisioning, Economics, Ecosystem Services Markets, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Biodiversity Offsets, 333, Environmental science, Natural resource economics, Ecosystem services, Convention on Biological Diversity, Climate change, Environmental resource management, Biology, Ecosystem Services, Land use, land-use change and forestry, Ecosystem, Environmental planning, Global and Planetary Change, Payments for Ecosystem Services, Global Analysis of Ecosystem Services and Land Use, Geography, Ecology, Biodiversity, Challenges and Policy Implications of Biodiversity Offsets, Computer science, Sustainability, FOS: Biological sciences, Environmental Science, Physical Sciences, Land use, Telecommunications, Drivers and Impacts of Tropical Deforestation
570, Provisioning, Economics, Ecosystem Services Markets, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Biodiversity Offsets, 333, Environmental science, Natural resource economics, Ecosystem services, Convention on Biological Diversity, Climate change, Environmental resource management, Biology, Ecosystem Services, Land use, land-use change and forestry, Ecosystem, Environmental planning, Global and Planetary Change, Payments for Ecosystem Services, Global Analysis of Ecosystem Services and Land Use, Geography, Ecology, Biodiversity, Challenges and Policy Implications of Biodiversity Offsets, Computer science, Sustainability, FOS: Biological sciences, Environmental Science, Physical Sciences, Land use, Telecommunications, Drivers and Impacts of Tropical Deforestation
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).18 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
