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https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9...
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Environmental Research Letters
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
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Environmental Research Letters
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Environmental Research Letters
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https://doi.org/10.1101/732644...
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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Intersecting vulnerabilities: Climatic and demographic contributions to future population exposure to Aedes-borne viruses in the United States

Authors: Sadie J. Ryan; Sadie J. Ryan; Sadie J. Ryan; Andrew Monaghan; Olga V. Wilhelmi; Guillaume Thibaut Rohat; Guillaume Thibaut Rohat; +2 Authors

Intersecting vulnerabilities: Climatic and demographic contributions to future population exposure to Aedes-borne viruses in the United States

Abstract

AbstractUnderstanding how climate change and demographic factors may shape future population exposure to viruses such as Zika, dengue, or chikungunya, transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes is essential to improving public health preparedness. In this study, we combine projections of cumulative monthly Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with spatially explicit population projections for vulnerable demographic groups (age and economic factors) to explore future county-level population exposure across the conterminous United States. We employ a scenario matrix – combinations of climate and socioeconomic scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) – to assess the full range of uncertainty in emissions, socioeconomic development, and demographic change. Human exposure is projected to increase under most scenarios, up to +177% at the national scale in 2080 relative to 2010. Projected exposure changes are predominantly driven by population changes in vulnerable demographic groups, although climate change is also important, particularly in the western region where future exposure may decrease by >30% under the strongest climate change mitigation scenario. The results emphasize the crucial role that socioeconomic and demographic change play in shaping future population vulnerability and exposure to Aedes-borne virus transmission risk in the United States, and underscore the importance of including socioeconomic scenarios in projections of climate-related vector-borne disease impacts.

Country
Switzerland
Keywords

Climate impacts, Representative Concentration Pathways, Science, QC1-999, Vulnerability, United-States, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, Article, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Zika, Aedes, Scenarios, Vector-borne diseases, Climate change, GE1-350, Aedes mosquitoes, TD1-1066, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/333.7-333.9, Physics, Q, Environmental sciences, ddc: ddc:333.7-333.9

  • BIP!
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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    10
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
10
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold