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Intersecting vulnerabilities: Climatic and demographic contributions to future population exposure to Aedes-borne viruses in the United States

AbstractUnderstanding how climate change and demographic factors may shape future population exposure to viruses such as Zika, dengue, or chikungunya, transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes is essential to improving public health preparedness. In this study, we combine projections of cumulative monthly Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with spatially explicit population projections for vulnerable demographic groups (age and economic factors) to explore future county-level population exposure across the conterminous United States. We employ a scenario matrix – combinations of climate and socioeconomic scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) – to assess the full range of uncertainty in emissions, socioeconomic development, and demographic change. Human exposure is projected to increase under most scenarios, up to +177% at the national scale in 2080 relative to 2010. Projected exposure changes are predominantly driven by population changes in vulnerable demographic groups, although climate change is also important, particularly in the western region where future exposure may decrease by >30% under the strongest climate change mitigation scenario. The results emphasize the crucial role that socioeconomic and demographic change play in shaping future population vulnerability and exposure to Aedes-borne virus transmission risk in the United States, and underscore the importance of including socioeconomic scenarios in projections of climate-related vector-borne disease impacts.
- University of Geneva Switzerland
- University of Florida United States
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, University Corporation for Antmospheric Research, Library United States
- University of Colorado Boulder United States
- University of KwaZulu-Natal South Africa
Climate impacts, Representative Concentration Pathways, Science, QC1-999, Vulnerability, United-States, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, Article, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Zika, Aedes, Scenarios, Vector-borne diseases, Climate change, GE1-350, Aedes mosquitoes, TD1-1066, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/333.7-333.9, Physics, Q, Environmental sciences, ddc: ddc:333.7-333.9
Climate impacts, Representative Concentration Pathways, Science, QC1-999, Vulnerability, United-States, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, Article, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, Zika, Aedes, Scenarios, Vector-borne diseases, Climate change, GE1-350, Aedes mosquitoes, TD1-1066, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/333.7-333.9, Physics, Q, Environmental sciences, ddc: ddc:333.7-333.9
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).10 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
