
You have already added 0 works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.
You have already added 0 works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.
Minimizing the Cost of Keeping Options Open for Conservation in a Changing Climate
AbstractPolicy documents advocate that managers should keep their options open while planning to protect coastal ecosystems from climate‐change impacts. However, the actual costs and benefits of maintaining flexibility remain largely unexplored, and alternative approaches for decision making under uncertainty may lead to better joint outcomes for conservation and other societal goals. For example, keeping options open for coastal ecosystems incurs opportunity costs for developers. We devised a decision framework that integrates these costs and benefits with probabilistic forecasts for the extent of sea‐level rise to find a balance between coastal ecosystem protection and moderate coastal development. Here, we suggest that instead of keeping their options open managers should incorporate uncertain sea‐level rise predictions into a decision‐making framework that evaluates the benefits and costs of conservation and development. In our example, based on plausible scenarios for sea‐level rise and assuming a risk‐neutral decision maker, we found that substantial development could be accommodated with negligible loss of environmental assets. Characterization of the Pareto efficiency of conservation and development outcomes provides valuable insight into the intensity of trade‐offs between development and conservation. However, additional work is required to improve understanding of the consequences of alternative spatial plans and the value judgments and risk preferences of decision makers and stakeholders.Minimizando el Costo de Mantener Opciones Abiertas para la Conservación en un Clima Cambiante
- Patuxent Wildlife Research Center United States
- University of Queensland Australia
- University of Melbourne Australia
- University of Queensland Australia
- University of Queensland Australia
objetivos multiples, Conservation of Natural Resources, 330, Incertidumbre, incertidumbre, Evolution, Climate Change, Decision Making, compresion del litoral, planeacion, Multiple objectives, 710, Objetivos múltiples, 333, 1105 Ecology, 2309 Nature and Landscape Conservation, Environmental Sciences and Ecology, Compresión del litoral, Behavior and Systematics, coastal squeeze, uncertainty, Ecosystem, Spatial planning, espacial, Biodiversity and Conservation, Uncertainty, Coastal squeeze, sea-level rise, Models, Theoretical, coastal zones, Planeación espacial, 2700 Medicine, multiple objectives, spatial planning, 2303 Ecology, management
objetivos multiples, Conservation of Natural Resources, 330, Incertidumbre, incertidumbre, Evolution, Climate Change, Decision Making, compresion del litoral, planeacion, Multiple objectives, 710, Objetivos múltiples, 333, 1105 Ecology, 2309 Nature and Landscape Conservation, Environmental Sciences and Ecology, Compresión del litoral, Behavior and Systematics, coastal squeeze, uncertainty, Ecosystem, Spatial planning, espacial, Biodiversity and Conservation, Uncertainty, Coastal squeeze, sea-level rise, Models, Theoretical, coastal zones, Planeación espacial, 2700 Medicine, multiple objectives, spatial planning, 2303 Ecology, management
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).17 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
