The Effect of Applying Alternate IPCC Climate Scenarios to Marine Reserve Design for Range Changing Species
Copyright policy )The Effect of Applying Alternate IPCC Climate Scenarios to Marine Reserve Design for Range Changing Species
AbstractEffectively protecting of biodiversity in the future relies on reserves that accommodate potential climate change impacts. Climate predictions are based on plausible ranges of greenhouse gas concentration scenarios from the IPCC, called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). It is unknown how different scenarios influence spatial prioritization, particularly for species that change their range due to climate change. Using corals in Japan, we explore differences in priorities under three RCPs (RCP8.5, 4.5, and 2.6), comparing three time frames (current conditions, near future, and distant future). We targeted three temperature zones representing different coral community types, determined from predictions of sea‐surface temperature for three RCPs. Results showed that using one RCP prediction to design a reserve system does a poor job at meeting conservation targets for other RCPs, missing up to 100% of the targets. We emphasize the importance of focusing conservation investment in “no regrets” areas that are important under every RCP.
- University of Queensland Australia
- Imperial College London United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland Finland
- University of Queensland Australia
- Australian Research Council Australia
AUSTRALIA, 550, Marine conservation, Evolution, marine protected area, Biodiversity & Conservation, CONSERVATION, climate model, Climate model, 333, 1105 Ecology, 2309 Nature and Landscape Conservation, spatial prioritization, marine conservation, Behavior and Systematics, sea-surface temperature, MD Multidisciplinary, Climate change, Representative concentration, coral, CORAL-REEF, Science & Technology, JAPAN, Sea-surface temperature, Ecology, IPCC, EXPANSION, PATTERNS, Biodiversity Conservation, Marxan, Marine protected area (MPA), Spatial prioritization, BIODIVERSITY, Coral, Representative Concentration Pathway, 2303 Ecology, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Pathway
AUSTRALIA, 550, Marine conservation, Evolution, marine protected area, Biodiversity & Conservation, CONSERVATION, climate model, Climate model, 333, 1105 Ecology, 2309 Nature and Landscape Conservation, spatial prioritization, marine conservation, Behavior and Systematics, sea-surface temperature, MD Multidisciplinary, Climate change, Representative concentration, coral, CORAL-REEF, Science & Technology, JAPAN, Sea-surface temperature, Ecology, IPCC, EXPANSION, PATTERNS, Biodiversity Conservation, Marxan, Marine protected area (MPA), Spatial prioritization, BIODIVERSITY, Coral, Representative Concentration Pathway, 2303 Ecology, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Pathway
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