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Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
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Spatio‐temporal marine conservation planning to support high‐latitude coral range expansion under climate change

Authors: Yumiko Yara; Carissa J. Klein; Maria Beger; Azusa Makino; Hugh P. Possingham; Hugh P. Possingham; Hiroya Yamano;

Spatio‐temporal marine conservation planning to support high‐latitude coral range expansion under climate change

Abstract

AbstractAimIncreasing sea‐surface temperatures (SST) have resulted in poleward range expansions of scleractinian corals and declines in their core ranges. These changes may provide management opportunities for the long‐term persistence of corals, but spatial prioritization rarely considers and anticipates these changes. We developed a spatio‐temporal conservation plan that accommodates future coral range expansions based on projections of futureSST. Our spatial planning approach is particularly useful in places with limited information about species distributions. Our aims were to (1) identify areas that consistently remain important for conservation through time and (2) determine the differences between priorities for conservation that account for potential coral range expansions and those that ignore them.LocationJapan.MethodsWe developed spatial planning approaches using predicted coral habitat distributions for current conditions, the near future and the distant future. Using theMarxan conservation planning software, we designed conservation plans for scenarios that incorporated different types of spatial and temporal connections. Spatial connections are physical connections between adjacent and nearby areas, whereas temporal connections connect planning areas throughout time.ResultsWe found that protecting areas important for current and future coral habitat distributions is possible by prioritizing places that are consistently important through time. A spatially and temporally cohesive plan was accomplished with only a 14% increase in the overall reserve system costs, compared with reserve systems ignoring future coral habitat distributions. The attributes of priority areas (e.g. locations, outside boundary length and size) were substantially different when we varied the types of connections.Main conclusionsThis study demonstrated that areas with highest conservation priority now will not necessarily be optimal when planning for future change, such as coral range expansions. Furthermore, we showed that incorporating spatio‐temporal connections into spatial prioritization achieves objectives of simultaneously conserving corals in the current climate and facilitating their expansions asSSTrises.

Country
Australia
Keywords

Evolution, Marine protected area, Sea surface temperature, Conservation, Climate model, 333, 1105 Ecology, Range expansion, Behavior and Systematics, Climate change

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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    56
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
56
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
gold