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The effect of climate change on the resilience of ecosystems with adaptive spatial pattern formation

AbstractIn a rapidly changing world, quantifying ecosystem resilience is an important challenge. Historically, resilience has been defined via models that do not take spatial effects into account. These systems can only adapt via uniform adjustments. In reality, however, the response is not necessarily uniform, and can lead to the formation of (self‐organised) spatial patterns – typically localised vegetation patches. Classical measures of resilience cannot capture the emerging dynamics in spatially self‐organised systems, including transitions between patterned states that have limited impact on ecosystem structure and productivity. We present a framework of interlinked phase portraits that appropriately quantifies the resilience of patterned states, which depends on the number of patches, the distances between them and environmental conditions. We show how classical resilience concepts fail to distinguish between small and large pattern transitions, and find that the variance in interpatch distances provides a suitable indicator for the type of imminent transition. Subsequently, we describe the dependency of ecosystem degradation based on the rate of climatic change: slow change leads to sporadic, large transitions, whereas fast change causes a rapid sequence of smaller transitions. Finally, we discuss how pre‐emptive removal of patches can minimise productivity losses during pattern transitions, constituting a viable conservation strategy.
- University of Zurich Switzerland
- University of Zurich Switzerland
- Leiden University Netherlands
- University Museum Utrecht Netherlands
- Utrecht University Netherlands
critical transitions, productivity, Evolution, Climate Change, self-organisation, Idea and Perspective, Behavior and Systematics, vegetation, SDG 13 - Climate Action, ecosystem resilience, adaptability of patterns, 910 Geography & travel, spatial patterns, Ecosystem, art, regime shifts, Ecology, spatial ecology, article, desertification, 10122 Institute of Geography, 1105 Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, climate change, body patterning, ecology
critical transitions, productivity, Evolution, Climate Change, self-organisation, Idea and Perspective, Behavior and Systematics, vegetation, SDG 13 - Climate Action, ecosystem resilience, adaptability of patterns, 910 Geography & travel, spatial patterns, Ecosystem, art, regime shifts, Ecology, spatial ecology, article, desertification, 10122 Institute of Geography, 1105 Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, climate change, body patterning, ecology
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).75 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1%
