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Global reductions in seafloor biomass in response to climate change

Seafloor organisms are vital for healthy marine ecosystems, contributing to elemental cycling, benthic remineralization, and ultimately sequestration of carbon. Deep-sea life is primarily reliant on the export flux of particulate organic carbon from the surface ocean for food, but most ocean biogeochemistry models predict global decreases in export flux resulting from 21st century anthropogenically induced warming. Here we show that decadal-to-century scale changes in carbon export associated with climate change lead to an estimated 5.2% decrease in future (2091-2100) global open ocean benthic biomass under RCP8.5 (reduction of 5.2 Mt C) compared with contemporary conditions (2006-2015). Our projections use multi-model mean export flux estimates from eight fully coupled earth system models, which contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, that have been forced by high and low representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and 4.5, respectively). These export flux estimates are used in conjunction with published empirical relationships to predict changes in benthic biomass. The polar oceans and some upwelling areas may experience increases in benthic biomass, but most other regions show decreases, with up to 38% reductions in parts of the northeast Atlantic. Our analysis projects a future ocean with smaller sized infaunal benthos, potentially reducing energy transfer rates though benthic multicellular food webs. More than 80% of potential deep-water biodiversity hotspots known around the world, including canyons, seamounts, and cold-water coral reefs, are projected to experience negative changes in biomass. These major reductions in biomass may lead to widespread change in benthic ecosystems and the functions and services they provide.
- University of Tasmania Australia
- CEA LETI France
- University of Tasmania Australia
- National Oceanography Centre United Kingdom
- Natural Environment Research Council United Kingdom
570, size structure, Time Factors, environment/Bioclimatology, Climate Change, Oceans and Seas, 551, [SDU.STU.OC] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography, meiofaunal, Models, Biological, 333, Carbon Cycle, megafauna, Animals, Biomass, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography, Ecosystem, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, benthic, deep-sea, Biodiversity, Primary Research Articles, Invertebrates, [SDV.EE.BIO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Bioclimatology, macrofauna, [SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, Vertebrates, macroecology, standing stock, [SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Bioclimatology
570, size structure, Time Factors, environment/Bioclimatology, Climate Change, Oceans and Seas, 551, [SDU.STU.OC] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography, meiofaunal, Models, Biological, 333, Carbon Cycle, megafauna, Animals, Biomass, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography, Ecosystem, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, benthic, deep-sea, Biodiversity, Primary Research Articles, Invertebrates, [SDV.EE.BIO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Bioclimatology, macrofauna, [SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, Vertebrates, macroecology, standing stock, [SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Bioclimatology
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).145 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1%
