In modelling effects of global warming, invalid assumptions lead to unrealistic projections
Copyright policy )In modelling effects of global warming, invalid assumptions lead to unrealistic projections
In their recent Opinion, Pauly and Cheung () provide new projections of future maximum fish weight (W∞ ). Based on criticism by Lefevre et al. (2017) they changed the scaling exponent for anabolism, dG . Here we find that changing both dG and the scaling exponent for catabolism, b, leads to the projection that fish may even become 98% smaller with a 1°C increase in temperature. This unrealistic outcome indicates that the current W∞ is unlikely to be explained by the Gill-Oxygen Limitation Theory (GOLT) and, therefore, GOLT cannot be used as a mechanistic basis for model projections about fish size in a warmer world.
- French Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea France
- UMR MARBEC France
- University of Oslo Norway
- University of Oslo Finland
- University of Oslo Finland
Gills, 570, warming, growth, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Global Warming, modelling, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, Animals, fish, scaling, Fishes, Temperature, oxygen uptake, VDP::Basale biofag: 470, climate change, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, metabolism, Forecasting
Gills, 570, warming, growth, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Global Warming, modelling, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, Animals, fish, scaling, Fishes, Temperature, oxygen uptake, VDP::Basale biofag: 470, climate change, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, metabolism, Forecasting
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