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Global Change Biology
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
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Global Change Biology
Article
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https://dx.doi.org/10.5445/ir/...
Article . 2021
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Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties

Authors: Julia M. Schneider; Elisabeth J. Moyer; Jonas Jägermeyr; Jonas Jägermeyr; Jonas Jägermeyr; Marie Dury; Louis François; +14 Authors

Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties

Abstract

AbstractClimate change affects global agricultural production and threatens food security. Faster phenological development of crops due to climate warming is one of the main drivers for potential future yield reductions. To counter the effect of faster maturity, adapted varieties would require more heat units to regain the previous growing period length. In this study, we investigate the effects of variety adaptation on global caloric production under four different future climate change scenarios for maize, rice, soybean, and wheat. Thereby, we empirically identify areas that could require new varieties and areas where variety adaptation could be achieved by shifting existing varieties into new regions. The study uses an ensemble of seven global gridded crop models and five CMIP6 climate models. We found that 39% (SSP5‐8.5) of global cropland could require new crop varieties to avoid yield loss from climate change by the end of the century. At low levels of warming (SSP1‐2.6), 85% of currently cultivated land can draw from existing varieties to shift within an agro‐ecological zone for adaptation. The assumptions on available varieties for adaptation have major impacts on the effectiveness of variety adaptation, which could more than half in SSP5‐8.5. The results highlight that region‐specific breeding efforts are required to allow for a successful adaptation to climate change.

Countries
Germany, Germany
Keywords

Crops, Agricultural, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, 550, ddc:550, Climate Change, Agriculture, 333, Crop Production, Earth sciences, Plant Breeding

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
85
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
Green
hybrid