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Global Change Biology
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
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Comparison of the distribution and phenology of Arctic Mountain plants between the early 20th and 21st centuries

Authors: Johan Olofsson; Andrew S. MacDougall; Andrew S. MacDougall; Kjell Bolmgren; Hannah Rosenzweig; Matthias Benjamin Siewert; Ellen H. Esch; +8 Authors

Comparison of the distribution and phenology of Arctic Mountain plants between the early 20th and 21st centuries

Abstract

AbstractArctic plants are adapted to climatic variability, but their long‐term responses to warming remain unclear. Responses may occur by range shifts, phenological adjustments in growth and reproduction, or both. Here, we compare distribution and phenology of 83 arctic and boreal mountain species, sampled identically in the early 20th (1917–1919) and 21st centuries (2017–2018) from a region of northern Sweden that has warmed significantly. We test two compensatory hypotheses to high‐latitude warming—upward shifts in distribution, and earlier or extended growth and reproduction. For distribution, we show dramatic upward migration by 69% of species, averaging 6.1 m per decade, especially boreal woodland taxa whose upward expansion has reduced arctic montane habitat by 30%. Twenty percent of summit species showed distributional shifts but downward, especially moisture‐associated snowbed flora. For phenology, we detected wide inter‐annual variability in the onset of leafing and flowering in both eras. However, there was no detectable change in growing‐season length, relating to two mechanisms. First, plot‐level snow melt data starting in 1917 demonstrated that melt date, rather than vernal temperatures, better predicts plant emergence, with snow melt influenced by warmer years having greater snowfall—warmer springs did not always result in earlier emergence because snowbeds can persist longer. Second, the onset of reproductive senescence between eras was similar, even when plant emergence was earlier by a month, possibly due to intensified summer heat stress or hard‐wired ‘canalization’ where senescence occurs regardless of summer temperature. Migrations in this system have possibly buffered arctic species against displacement by boreal expansion and warming, but ongoing temperature increases, woody plant invasion, and a potential lack of flexibility in timing of senescence may foreshadow challenges.

Country
United Kingdom
Keywords

/dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2306, /dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2304, Climate Change, mountain, migration, phenology, arctic flora, Environmental Science(all), /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/climate_action, Snow, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Environmental Chemistry, /dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300/2303, Ecosystem, Global and Planetary Change, Ecology, Arctic Regions, Temperature, resiliency, /dk/atira/pure/subjectarea/asjc/2300, climate change, historical data, Seasons

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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    11
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
11
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
bronze