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Global Change Biology
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Global Change Biology
Article
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https://dx.doi.org/10.5445/ir/...
Article . 2021
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Large variability in response to projected climate and land‐use changes among European bumblebee species

Authors: Reinhard Prestele; Calum Brown; Chiara Polce; Joachim Maes; Penelope Whitehorn;

Large variability in response to projected climate and land‐use changes among European bumblebee species

Abstract

AbstractBumblebees (Bombus ssp.) are among the most important wild pollinators, but many species have suffered from range declines. Land‐use change, agricultural intensification, and the associated loss of habitat have been identified as drivers of the observed dynamics, amplifying pressures from a changing climate. However, these drivers are still underrepresented in continental‐scale species distribution modeling. Here, we project the potential distribution of 47 European bumblebee species in 2050 and 2080 from existing European‐scale distribution maps, based on a set of climate and land‐use futures simulated through a regional integrated assessment model and consistent with the RCP–SSP scenario framework. We compare projections including (1) dynamic climate and constant land use (CLIM); (2) constant climate and dynamic land use (LU); and (3) dynamic climate and dynamic land use (COMB) to disentangle the effects of land use and climate change on future habitat suitability, providing the first rigorous continental‐scale assessment of linked climate–land‐use futures for bumblebees. We find that direct climate impacts, although variable across species, dominate responses for most species, especially under high‐end climate change scenarios (up to 99% range loss). Land‐use impacts are highly variable across species and scenarios, ranging from severe losses (up to 75% loss) to considerable gains (up to 68% gain) of suitable habitat extent. Rare species thereby tend to be disproportionally affected by both climate and land‐use change. COMB projections reveal that land use may amplify, attenuate, or offset changes to suitable habitat extent expected from climate impact depending on species and scenario. Especially in low‐end climate change scenarios, land use has the potential to become a game changer in determining the direction and magnitude of range changes, indicating substantial potential for targeted conservation management.

Countries
Germany, Germany
Keywords

info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, 550, ddc:550, Climate Change, Bees, Earth sciences, Animals, Ecosystem

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    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
17
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
hybrid