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Global Ecology and Biogeography
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC
Data sources: Crossref
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Range and extinction dynamics of the steppe bison in Siberia: A pattern‐oriented modelling approach

A pattern-oriented modelling approach
Authors: July A. Pilowsky; Sean Haythorne; Stuart C. Brown; Mario Krapp; Edward Armstrong; Barry W. Brook; Carsten Rahbek; +1 Authors

Range and extinction dynamics of the steppe bison in Siberia: A pattern‐oriented modelling approach

Abstract

AbstractAimTo determine the ecological processes and drivers of range collapse, population decline and eventual extinction of the steppe bison in Eurasia.LocationSiberia.Time periodPleistocene and Holocene.Major taxa studiedSteppe bison (Bison priscus).MethodsWe configured 110,000 spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) of climate–human–steppe bison interactions in Siberia, which we ran at generational time steps from 50,000 years before present. We used pattern‐oriented modelling (POM) and fossil‐based inferences of distribution and demographic change of steppe bison to identify which SEPMs adequately simulated important interactions between ecological processes and biological threats. These “best models” were then used to disentangle the mechanisms that were integral in the population decline and later extinction of the steppe bison in its last stronghold in Eurasia.ResultsOur continuous reconstructions of the range and extinction dynamics of steppe bison were able to reconcile inferences of spatio‐temporal occurrence and the timing and location of extinction in Siberia based on hundreds of radiocarbon‐dated steppe bison fossils. We showed that simulating the ecological pathway to extinction for steppe bison in Siberia in the early Holocene required very specific ecological niche constraints, demographic processes and a constrained synergy of climate and human hunting dynamics during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition.Main conclusionsEcological processes and drivers that caused ancient population declines of species can be reconstructed at high spatio‐temporal resolutions using SEPMs and POM. Using this approach, we found that climatic change and hunting by humans are likely to have interacted with key ecological processes to cause the extinction of the steppe bison in its last refuge in Eurasia.

Countries
Australia, Australia, Denmark, Denmark, Finland
Keywords

CONSERVATION, 910, palaeoclimate, 333, COLONIZATION, PRISCUS, SYSTEMS, distribution, TEMPERATURE, POPULATION, steppe bison, CALIBRATION, COMPLEX, synergistic threats, mechanistic model, extinction dynamics, metapopulation, range shift, CLIMATE, Environmental sciences, climate change, spatially explicit population model, Ecology, evolutionary biology, RESPONSES

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    13
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
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    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
13
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
hybrid