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Climate Variability, Weather and Enteric Disease Incidence in New Zealand: Time Series Analysis

Authors: Lal, Aparna; Ikeda, Takayoshi; French, Nigel P; Baker, Michael; Hales, Simon;

Climate Variability, Weather and Enteric Disease Incidence in New Zealand: Time Series Analysis

Abstract

Evaluating the influence of climate variability on enteric disease incidence may improve our ability to predict how climate change may affect these diseases.To examine the associations between regional climate variability and enteric disease incidence in New Zealand.Associations between monthly climate and enteric diseases (campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, cryptosporidiosis, giardiasis) were investigated using Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models.No climatic factors were significantly associated with campylobacteriosis and giardiasis, with similar predictive power for univariate and multivariate models. Cryptosporidiosis was positively associated with average temperature of the previous month (β = 0.130, SE = 0.060, p <0.01) and inversely related to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) two months previously (β = -0.008, SE = 0.004, p <0.05). By contrast, salmonellosis was positively associated with temperature (β = 0.110, SE = 0.020, p<0.001) of the current month and SOI of the current (β = 0.005, SE = 0.002, p<0.050) and previous month (β = 0.005, SE = 0.002, p<0.05). Forecasting accuracy of the multivariate models for cryptosporidiosis and salmonellosis were significantly higher.Although spatial heterogeneity in the observed patterns could not be assessed, these results suggest that temporally lagged relationships between climate variables and national communicable disease incidence data can contribute to disease prediction models and early warning systems.

Country
Australia
Keywords

Time Factors, Science, Climate Change, Rain, Communicable Diseases, Models, Humans, human, Weather, time, Models, Statistical, Keywords: rain, Incidence, statistical model, Q, R, Temperature, temperature, Statistical, climate change, weather, incidence, Medicine, Seasons, season, Research Article, New Zealand

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    66
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
66
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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gold