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Making ecosystem modelling operational - a novel distributed execution framework to systematically explore ecological responses to divergent climate trajectories

Authors: Steenbeek, Jeroen; Ortega, Pablo; Bernardello, Raffaele; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Exarchou, Eleftheria; Fuster‐Alonso, Alba; +5 Authors

Making ecosystem modelling operational - a novel distributed execution framework to systematically explore ecological responses to divergent climate trajectories

Abstract

AbstractMarine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) are increasingly driven by Earth System Models (ESMs) to better understand marine ecosystem dynamics, and to analyze the effects of alternative management efforts for marine ecosystems under potential scenarios of climate change. However, policy and commercial activities typically occur on seasonal‐to‐decadal time scales, a time span widely used in the global climate modeling community but where the skill level assessments of MEMs are in their infancy. This is mostly due to technical hurdles that prevent the global MEM community from performing large ensemble simulations with which to undergo systematic skill assessments. Here, we developed a novel distributed execution framework constructed of low‐tech and freely available technologies to enable the systematic execution and analysis of linked ESM/MEM prediction ensembles. We apply this framework on the seasonal‐to‐decadal time scale, and assess how retrospective forecast uncertainty in an ensemble of initialized decadal ESM predictions affects a mechanistic and spatiotemporal explicit global trophodynamic MEM. Our results indicate that ESM internal variability has a relatively low impact on the MEM variability in comparison to the broad assumptions related to reconstructed fisheries. We also observe that the results are also sensitive to the ESM specificities. Our case study warrants further systematic explorations to disentangle the impacts of climate change, fisheries scenarios, MEM internal ecological hypotheses, and ESM variability. Most importantly, our case study demonstrates that a simple and free distributed execution framework has the potential to empower any modeling group with the fundamental capabilities to operationalize marine ecosystem modeling.

Countries
Spain, Norway
Keywords

Distributed execution, Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts, :Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], distributed execution, open‐source software, Ecology, Climatology--Computer programs., 500, Marine ecosystem models, Climatology--Computer programs, systematic assessments, Open-source software, Environmental sciences, Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia, MacGyver, Systematic assessments, Simulació per ordinador, marine ecosystem models, Climate change, GE1-350, QH540-549.5, Marine ecosystems

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    2
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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    influence
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    impulse
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
Related to Research communities
Energy Research