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Is climate exacerbating the root causes of conflict in Mali? A climate security analysis through a structural equation modeling approach

handle: 10568/127749
Climate continues to pose significant challenges to human existence. Notably, in the past decade, the focus on the role of climate on conflict and social unrest has gained traction in academic, development, and policy communities. This article examines the link between climate variability and conflict in Mali. It advances the argument that climate is a threat multiplier, in other words, climate indirectly affects conflict occurrence through numerous pathways. We take the view that maize production and household food security status sequentially mediate the relationship between climate variability and the different conflict types. First, we provide a brief review of the climate conflict pathways in Mali. Second, we employ the path analysis within the structural equation modeling technique to test the hypothesized pathways and answer the research questions. We use the Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA), a nationally representative data from Mali merged with time and location-specific climate and the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) data. Results show that an increase in positive temperature anomalies when sequentially mediated by maize production and household food security status, increase the occurrence of the different conflict types. The results are robust to the use of negative precipitation anomalies (tendency toward less precipitation compared to the historical norm). Our findings highlight two key messages, first, the crucial role of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies and interventions on influencing household food security status and thus reducing conflict occurrence. Second, that efforts to build peace and security should account for the role of climate in exacerbating the root causes of conflict.
- Ritsumeikan University Japan
- Bahir Dar University Ethiopia
- Alliance for International Medical Action Senegal
- CGIAR France
- Bahir Dar University Ethiopia
climate variability, Sociology and Political Science, Economics, conflict, FOS: Political science, Social Sciences, Agricultural productivity, Mali, Structural equation modeling, Agricultural and Biological Sciences, conflicts, Psychological intervention, food insecurity, Rangeland Degradation and Pastoral Livelihoods, Climate change, Psychology, GE1-350, Environmental resource management, Political science, Development economics, Psychiatry, Geography, Ecology, Politics, Life Sciences, Agriculture, FOS: Psychology, Influence of Climate on Human Conflict, Archaeology, Physical Sciences, climate security, Conflict, Soil Science, FOS: Law, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Environmental science, impact pathways, Machine learning, mediation analysis, climate, Biology, Risk Management and Vulnerability in Agriculture, Food security, Computer science, Environmental sciences, Unrest, FOS: Biological sciences, Environmental Science, Law
climate variability, Sociology and Political Science, Economics, conflict, FOS: Political science, Social Sciences, Agricultural productivity, Mali, Structural equation modeling, Agricultural and Biological Sciences, conflicts, Psychological intervention, food insecurity, Rangeland Degradation and Pastoral Livelihoods, Climate change, Psychology, GE1-350, Environmental resource management, Political science, Development economics, Psychiatry, Geography, Ecology, Politics, Life Sciences, Agriculture, FOS: Psychology, Influence of Climate on Human Conflict, Archaeology, Physical Sciences, climate security, Conflict, Soil Science, FOS: Law, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Environmental science, impact pathways, Machine learning, mediation analysis, climate, Biology, Risk Management and Vulnerability in Agriculture, Food security, Computer science, Environmental sciences, Unrest, FOS: Biological sciences, Environmental Science, Law
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).6 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
