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A Framework for Combining Seasonal Forecasts and Climate Projections to Aid Risk Management for Fisheries and Aquaculture

A changing climate, in particular a warming ocean, is likely to impact marine industries in a variety of ways. For example, aquaculture businesses may not be able to maintain production in their current location into the future, or area-restricted fisheries may need to follow the fish as they change distribution. Preparation for these potential climate impacts can be improved with information about the future. Such information can support a risk-based management strategy for industries exposed to both short-term environmental variability and long-term change. In southern Australia, adverse climate impacts on valuable seafood industries have occurred, and they are now seeking advice about future environmental conditions. We introduce a decision tree to explain the potential use of long-term climate projections and seasonal forecasts by these industries. Climate projections provide insight into the likely time in the future when current locations will no longer be suitable for growing or catching particular species. Until this time, seasonal forecasting is beneficial in helping industries plan ahead to reduce impacts in poor years and maximize opportunities in good years. Use of seasonal forecasting can extend the period of time in which industries can cope in a location as environmental suitability declines due to climate change. While a range of short-term forecasting approaches exist, including persistence and climatological forecasts, only dynamic model forecasts provide a viable option for managing environmental risk for marine industries in regions where climate change is reducing environmental suitability and creating novel conditions.
- University of California System United States
- Bureau of Meteorology Australia
- King Abdullah University of Sciences & Technology Saudi Arabia
- Commonwealth Science and Industrial Research Organisation, Oceans and Atmosphere Australia
- School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences University of New South Wales Australia
climate variability, Global and Planetary Change, Science, Q, General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution, Ocean Engineering, emergence time, Aquatic Science, QH1-199.5, Oceanography, climate-proofing, climate risk management, climate change, ACCESS-S, Water Science and Technology
climate variability, Global and Planetary Change, Science, Q, General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution, Ocean Engineering, emergence time, Aquatic Science, QH1-199.5, Oceanography, climate-proofing, climate risk management, climate change, ACCESS-S, Water Science and Technology
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).71 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 1%
