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Grapevine Phenology of cv. Touriga Franca and Touriga Nacional in the Douro Wine Region: Modelling and Climate Change Projections

Authors: Ricardo Costa; Helder Fraga; André Fonseca; Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri; Maria C. Val; Cristina Carlos; Samuel Reis; +1 Authors

Grapevine Phenology of cv. Touriga Franca and Touriga Nacional in the Douro Wine Region: Modelling and Climate Change Projections

Abstract

Projections of grapevine phenophases under future climate change scenarios are strategic decision support tools for viticulturists and wine producers. Several phenological models are tested for budburst, flowering, and veraison and for two main grapevine varieties (cv. Touriga Franca and Touriga Nacional) growing in the Douro Demarcated Region. Four forcing models (Growing degree-days, Richardson, Sigmoid, and Wang) and three dormancy models (Bidabe, Smoothed Utah and Chuine), with different parameterizations and combinations, are used. New datasets, combing phenology with weather station data, widespread over the Douro wine region, were used for this purpose. The eight best performing models and parameterizations were selected for each phenophase and variety, based on performance metrics. For both cultivars, results revealed moderate performances (0.4 < R2 < 0.7) for budburst, while high performances (R2 > 0.7) were found for flowering and veraison, particularly when Growing degree-days or Sigmoid models are used, respectively. Climate change projections were based on a two-member climate model ensemble from the EURO-CORDEX project under RCP4.5. Projections depicted an anticipation of phenophase timings by 6, 8 or 10–12 days until the end of the century for budburst, flowering, and veraison, respectively. The inter-model variability is of approximately 2–4 days for flowering and veraison and 4–6 days for budburst. These results establish grounds for the implementation of a decision support system for monitoring and short-term prediction of grapevine phenology, thus promoting a more efficient viticulture.

Countries
France, Portugal
Keywords

[SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, grapevine;phenology;phenology modelling platform;Touriga Franca;Touriga Nacional;climate change;RCP4.5; EURO-CORDEX; Douro wine region;Portugal, <i>Touriga Nacional</i>, phenology, 333, Douro wine region, <i>Touriga Franca</i>, Touriga Nacional, Milieux et Changements globaux, modélisation, changement climatique, phenology modelling platform, [SDV.SA] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Portugal, S, aide à la décision, Agriculture, Touriga Franca, phénologie, Agricultural sciences, grapevine, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, climate change, EURO-CORDEX, vigne, RCP4.5, Sciences agricoles

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
61
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 1%
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gold