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Projecting the Potential Distribution Areas of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) Driven by Climate Change

Authors: Lu Zhang; Delong Ma; Chao Li; Ruobing Zhou; Jun Wang; Qiyong Liu;

Projecting the Potential Distribution Areas of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) Driven by Climate Change

Abstract

Ixodes scapularis is a vector of tick-borne diseases. Climate change is frequently invoked as an important cause of geographic expansions of tick-borne diseases. Environmental variables such as temperature and precipitation have an important impact on the geographical distribution of disease vectors. We used the maximum entropy model to project the potential geographic distribution and future trends of I. scapularis. The main climatic variables affecting the distribution of potential suitable areas were screened by the jackknife method. Arc Map 10.5 was used to visualize the projection results to better present the distribution of potential suitable areas. Under climate change scenarios, the potential suitable area of I. scapularis is dynamically changing. The largest suitable area of I. scapularis is under SSP3-7.0 from 2081 to 2100, while the smallest is under SSP5-8.5 from 2081 to 2100, even smaller than the current suitable area. Precipitation in May and September are the main contributing factors affecting the potential suitable areas of I. scapularis. With the opportunity to spread to more potential suitable areas, it is critical to strengthen surveillance to prevent the possible invasion of I. scapularis.

Keywords

<i>Ixodes scapularis</i>, QH301-705.5, <i>Ixodes scapularis</i>; potential distribution; MaxEnt; climate change, Article, climate change, MaxEnt, Biology (General), potential distribution

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
15
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold